Monday, November 23, 2009

Profiting From Fantasy Sports

There has been a ton of competition out there since we launched in June 2007. Daily Fantasy Sports is very beatable long-term just like online poker is, but I can't play on my site, and the competitive sites just really have not been there yet. I mean, it would have to be worth my while to get my fantasy game up to top level, and unless I am going to get paid for that, why bother? Well in a way there is a dream come true out there. There is a new site, that was specifically designed for daily fantasy sports contest hogs. A site where there can only be one top of the food chain, and that one player gets to take ALL of the website's action. I would drop a link right now, but I am not sure if I can actually recommend it. I mean if you play there at the lowest stakes you will get randomly matched with either me, or the other two current contest hogs on the site. Since all three are pretty good, it probably would not be worth bothering, unless you have some cash to contribute. Just head over to Fantasy Sports Live where you can a least chose your competition and not get stuck against one of the top three daily fantasy players in the world every time.

Top of the Food Chain

So I decided to start this grand experiment last weekend for Fantasy Football. The contest hog ability of this new site is flawless. They only offer one Salary Cap Structure that is way too loose, and makes for much less fiddling with your team. I built up some fantasy football player projections for Daily on the FSL blog, and used them to build my team. I found out immediately that I could get 5 to 6 of the top choices easy. So I spent about an hour agonizing over the last 3 to 4 picks. I deposited $50, got a $10 bonus and entered (12) $5 Heads Up leagues. Contest hogging is a breeze on this site, as with two mouse clicks you can enter the same team over and over (you could enter 1000s of $5 leagues in less than 10 minutes). Sunday morning I tweaked my team just a bit, but left it as is in two of the 12 leagues. I ended up going 9-3, and would have gone 10-2 had I fixed all of my fantasy teams. In these 12 leagues, I was matched up against the number one player from FSL and beat him 3 out of 4 times, only losing in a league that I did not update (Could have been 4/4). So far so good, but am I ready to take a stab at the top of the food chain yet? My projections seem pretty solid, and better than most for daily. They are also purely statistical projections, and a bunch of projections out there are not statistical, and are less accurate as a resut. So I entered (18) $5 leagues that included Thursdays game. I was matched with the top player from FSL again a bunch, and I beat him again. I also noticed that his QB selection was interesting. Looking again at the cap levels, I found that Warner was grossly undervalued, and that even though he was not projected as the top QB, I would be forced to pick him up for value. I adjusted my team accordingly, and figured that for the Sun/Mon leagues I would get him as my matchup again in most leagues, and that 6 of our players would be the same. For the three different picks, mine would each be better. I basically had what I felt was the best possible team anyone could possibly make under the cap. I deposited $300 more, and entered a shit load of $5 and even a few $10 leagues. Top my surprise, the top player from FSL did not show up at all on Sunday. It was the top player from this new site, and he must have entered 85% of the leagues that they were running, as I was matched with him in like 85% of my leagues. Oh, shit! Well I looked at his team, and though different then what I had expected to be up against, I still had the better team. 6 identical picks, and I am still better in the odd 3 choices. Well I had a pretty good run on Sunday, and all I need is 6 fantasy points out of Chris Johnson tonight to sweep the top player and continue my god like running. Johnson has scored at least twice that in every game this year, so I am not very worried. I will post a screen shot of my win loss record in HU tomorrow and it is going to be ridiculous. Based on how strong I feel my team is next week, I will probably just let it all ride again, and try to get to the top of the food chain. Once you can beat the top player on the site, he should back off, and let you get the easy match-ups. I may be just a week away.

Edit: Win Loss Record Through Two Weekends Shown Below

Week 10 Results


Week 11 Results


Week 11 Sun/Mon League Results


Note: All results are for Heads-Up Leagues

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Sunday, November 22, 2009

Global Warming Finally Exposed as Scientific Fraud

It's been a bad few months for the Global Warming Alarmist community. They were recently forced to release data relating to a peer reviewed 10-year old paper that created the original "hockeystick". The data showed how a single cherry picked tree in Yamal Russia was used to show a hockey stick for Global Temperatures where none existed. In normal science, you must release all data at the time of publication for replication purposes. Climate science is not normal science. It is simply a massive fraud. The main and most well known players have actually been fudging the data, using "tricks" to make temperature graphs go up when they should go down, blocking all skeptical arguments from publication, and claiming with solidarity that the science is settled when they don't even believe that internally. A whistle blower has finally exposed all this to light, by providing access to 1000s of internal emails among the climate science community. They expose what I have always suspected, massive scientific fraud.

If the scientific community wants to regain the public trust, this must be taken seriously and the offenders seriously punished. Many of the emails show outright criminal activity, where requests for data under the Freedom of Information Act were thwarted by destroying the data, or any emails relating to it's existence. The various peer reviewed authors who have now been shown to fudge data and graphs to present a preconceived point of view rather than actual science need to be stripped of their scientific credentials. All papers that use data in question from these authors should no longer be cited and should be marked as scientific fraud in some way in the journals that published them. Scientific Journals need to get their act together and do a much better job of peer review, and insist on full replication of any statistical study, and all data, code and methods for any scientific paper.

The response from the Climate Science community to the released emails is pretty much typical. Rather than acknowledge what they reveal, they are busy making there illogical arguments. Stealing the emails is illegal, how do we know they have not been edited, there is nothing wrong in any of the emails..... Sorry, but this is your normal playbook. Never actually acknowledge anything wrong with the science, and just try to move on. If the climate science community has any credibility left, they need to use this opportunity to clean up their act. Admit that the people in question have actually committed scientific fraud, and start putting together a way to prevent this going forward. How about actually releasing all data and code required for replication? How about letting actual statisticians review statistical studies before they are published? How about acknowledging that the science is in fact not settled, not even close? If you want the public to believe in Global Warming tell us what the equation is. Be honest about the uncertainties. Most importantly, quit being political, and try to do real science.

All of this would have been exposed eventually. You can try to argue the earth is flat or whatever for 100s of years, but if it actually is not somebody will figure this out and prove it, and it only takes one. The original person who claimed flat earth may have looked good while he was alive, but 100s of years later he looks like an idiot. If you do good, replicable science you will never look like an idiot. Seek scientific truth, not an agenda, and the truth you will find. This will go down as one of the biggest setbacks for science to date, and you can basically thank the progressive left for funding this massive fraud.

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Tuesday, November 10, 2009

WSOP ME Backing is for Suckers?

Backing somebody in the WSOP ME has got to be the worst investment you could possibly make. I am saying this now, as once again we have a backed winner making it look like easy money to the ill informed. Lets look at it from a pure economic perspective. Poker is not a zero-sum game. There is a significant rake in the ME that will need to be overcome. Most backing agreements are not 100% either. For example this year's winner is paying out 50% based on 100% backing from what I understand. So you need to overcome the rake and then double your money on top of that to break even. Now lets look at who is entering the ME. Sure we have a bunch of donks that lucksacked through an online donkalite, or rich/celeb types who don't care about the 10k. Then you got your part timers, pros, wannabe pros and the like. Most real pros can probably cover themselves. So the part-timers and wannabes should be decent winners to even take a stab at a 10k MTT. So a good portion probably saved some winnings up from cash games or whatever they play to cover their entry. Other breezed their way through a satellite on in. Out of the remaining players not in with their own winnings or a satellite win, you get your players seeking backing. Tons of losers are already in, but nobody from this group. So out of this group you pick out your gem and look for a double up plus to break even, in a marathon where anything can happen and you you will need to get a week deep for any kind of payback.

Variance is an issue in big MTTs. I get that. The problem is that backing can't possibly help. You need to run 1000s of trials to get long-term in the WSOP ME. Sorry, but you are not going to get there backing a handful of players each year. Not even close. It's just another way to gamble, and if you have 1ok to waste and you are in to that type of thing go for it. Just don't argue backing players is some long-term profitable strategy.

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Friday, November 06, 2009

"Its the Economy Stupid"

Obama continues to fiddle while America burns to the ground. Has he forgot the number one issue during elections is the economy? "It's the economy , stupid". Fiddling with health care and climate change while your house burns to the ground is what Obama has chosen to do. As a result the fire is spreading. Drop health care and the environment and fix the economy now by incentivizing hard work, or we will throw your cronies out next year. Without your yes men in congress you will be impotent and worthless during your last 2 years. You are setting yourself up to be the worst president of all time, and you deserve the title because you are truly a joke Mr. Obama.