Sticking With The Aints

I don't believe this year is as strong of a pick as last year, but I am still loving the Saints in the Superbowl tomorrow. You can grab them at +6 at Bodog which seems like a no brainer based on the following.

W/L record.

Both teams were 13-0 before mailing it in a bit at the end. Slight edge to Indy for winning one more meaningless game than the Saints.

Strength of Schedule

Both teams had somewhat easy schedules and faced three playoff teams in the regular season. No edge here.

Results against like opponents.

The Saints actually have a huge lead here with better results pretty much across the board against like opponents. Indy lost to Bills and the Jets while the Saints crushed them both. Indy edged out Miami and New England, while the Saints beat them both by large margins. Both teams crushed Arizona (Saints did it in the playoffs). The only edge here you can find for Indy is that the crushed the hapless Rams, while the Saints edged them on the road by just 5 points. Huge edge here for the Saints.

Team Offensive Statistics

Again the Saints hold a pretty big edge here if you look at the numbers. The Saints put up 6 more points per game than Indy, and win their games by 4 more points on average than Indianapolis. They bring a much more balanced attack with 50 more yards per game rushing than Indy while just being 10 yards per game short in passing. Huge edge here for the Saints.

Team Defense Statistics

Indy gives up 2 less points per game and brings a slightly better passing defense to the table. They are also slightly better on turnovers. Slight edge here for Indy.

Injuries

Indy seems pretty banged up compared the the Saints. Freeney and Powers, two defensive starters, are questionable. Wayne and Addai are probable with shoulder and knee injuries. Other than Meachem and Moore with slight ankle injuries the Saints look pretty healthy even after a tough Minnesota game.

Overall

I see no reason why Indy should be favored in the Superbowl. One extra win at the end of the regular season does not overcome the fact that the Saints are better on paper, and did much better against like opponents. You could even make the case that the Saints should be favored in this one. Take the points or bet the money line with the Saints and earns some tomorrow.

Early Superbowl Chatter

I figured a few may stop by here to see what I have to say about the Superbowl match-up this year. Last year I said to Bet the Farm on Arizona, and those who followed my advise have two farms now, or may have traded up to live in the city. For once it looks to be a competitive Superbowl on paper which is nice. While watching both New Orleans and Indianapolis this season, I found them to be the two most over-rated undefeated teams ever. Sure they both got to 12 or 13 wins before facing a loss, but both teams tended more to come from behind to win then simply blowing teams out week after week like New England was doing a few years back. I did think that they were the two best teams and was expecting this match-up when the playoffs started. It looks like the line opened at Indy -4 with some pressure to move the line higher. At his point I like New Orleans for several reasons which I will list below. This is an early call and subject to change.

Reasons for New Orleans

1) Teams appear to be fairly matched so take the points

2) New Orleans beat the crap out of Favre on Sunday. Pressuring and hitting Manning is key to beating Indy, and New Orleans seems to have what it takes.

3) I like New Orleans coach better, but he needs to learn from a few big mistakes made on Sunday.

4) Minnesota's Defense is better than Indy's and N.O. still put up 31 points on them. New Orleans should score more than that in the Superbowl, which means Indy will need to put up 40+ points to cover.

5) New Orleans never let Minnesota take a big lead, though Indy did get way behind the Jets in the first half (not counting two missed FGs).

Reasons for Indy

1) It's a bit scary that New Orleans got 5 turnovers against Minnesota, and needed to go to overtime. Some of this was bad coaching, but I do not expect them to get 5 turnovers in the big game.

Coaching Issues from Sunday

Two big mistakes jump out at me from Sunday's New Orleans Game. They are subtle but important. When New Orleans got the ball late with a 7 point lead inside their own 10 yard line, they started playing not to lose, instead of to win. They should have assumed that Minnesota would get another TD, and been playing for more points, and not ultraconservative protect the ball football. They ended up punting, and Minnesota did get the TD to tie it. They should have tested them deep when Minnesota was expecting them to be careful. The last mistake nearly cost them the game. Minnesota was driving for the winning FG, when they completed the ball at the 32 yard line of New Orleans with about 1 minute left. With the clock running, for some reason N.O. used their last timeout, basically granting Minnesota an extra timeout. With the clock stopped for the stupid N.O. timeout, Minnesota was able to save one of their timeouts. Later when faced with third down from the 37 with a few seconds left, Minnesota would have been forced to kick a long FG. Instead, they had time to run one more play which was intercepted, but could have got them the yards for the winning FG. When N.O. got the ball back in decent position, they would have still had a timeout left, and may have been able to win in regulation. The wasted timeout was just a huge mistake IMO, and I am hoping they will learn from it.

Constitutional Rights?

In the past, U.S. Constitutional Rights were reserved for U.S. Citizens. This meant that you either needed to be born a U.S. Citizen, or had to go through a lengthy application process to become a U.S. Citizen. There is now a fast track status to U.S. Constitutional rights. Simply commit an "Act of War" against the United States, and you get full U.S. constitutional rights according to the Obama administration. This does not surprise me one bit from a president who values the rights of terrorists, over the rights of Americans. It does not surprise me one bit from a president who is not even constitutionally eligible to be president. I am not taking about his place of birth, which is in question. I am talking about the known fact that his father was not a United States citizen at the time of his birth (His father also never became a U.S. Citizen). Section 1 article 2 of the U.S. Constitution states:

"No person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any Person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty-five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States"

Requirements for Natural Born Status are listed below:

• Anyone born inside the United States *
• Any Indian or Eskimo born in the United States, provided being a citizen of the U.S. does not impair the person's status as a citizen of the tribe
• Any one born outside the United States, both of whose parents are citizens of the U.S., as long as one parent has lived in the U.S.
• Any one born outside the United States, if one parent is a citizen and lived in the U.S. for at least one year and the other parent is a U.S. national
• Any one born in a U.S. possession, if one parent is a citizen and lived in the U.S. for at least one year
• Any one found in the U.S. under the age of five, whose parentage cannot be determined, as long as proof of non-citizenship is not provided by age 21
• Any one born outside the United States, if one parent is an alien and as long as the other parent is a citizen of the U.S. who lived in the U.S. for at least five years (with military and diplomatic service included in this time)
• A final, historical condition: a person born before 5/24/1934 of an alien father and a U.S. citizen mother who has lived in the U.S.

_{* There is an exception in the law — the person must be "subject to the jurisdiction" of the United States. This would exempt the child of a diplomat, for example, from this provision.}

Since Obama's father was a British subject as the time of his birth, he can't be Naturally born just because he was born in Hawaii. Lets just leave it at that for now.

So should terrorist who commit acts of war get U.S. constitutional rights. The answer is absolutely not. An enemy combatant captured during an ongoing war, can be held as a prisoner of war, indefinitely. This as what we should be doing with captured terrorists. We should lock them up and throw any the key, until Al Qaeda unconditionally surrenders to the United States. Until that happens, the war is still on going, and we have the right to hold onto the prisoners of war. Also, since this is ultimately a religious war, I would lock them up with no access to the Koran, and no special religious treatment. If someone wants to make the case that this is not a religious war, I will listen, but I would not allow captured prisoners of war to practice the religion that they are fighting the war over. Sorry! If, and when the war on terror ends, we can then decide if we want to put any of these prisoners of war on trial for war crimes. Until the war is over it is completely inappropriate to put these guys into a media circus type trial.

The other huge problem with giving terrorists who commit acts of war on the United States constitutional rights, is that it allows them to "Lawyer Up", and avoid answering questions that may stop a future act of war on the United States. We are at war people! Giving Terrorists constitutional rights puts American lives at risk. What if the underwear bomber was one of several terrorists trying to smuggle in a Nuclear detonator for a nuclear bomb already on U.S. Soil. Are we really going to let this guy "Lawyer Up" instead of actively trying to stop a Nuclear bomb from killing millions of Americans. This whole business of protecting the rights of people who commit acts of war just makes me sick.

Ultimately, the constitution is just a piece of paper. If the president/congress/supreme court have no interest in defending it, it is completely worthless. Now I will admit that Bush took a crap on the constitution from time to time, but Obama appears to piss on it every morning, and wipe his ass with it every night. It will eventually just get flushed down the toilet, if this continues. I have no idea what can be done to get our elected officials to enforce the Constitution, but it needs to happen soon.

Winter 2009 WPBT Trip Report

The report is late, and will be a bit short, but here we go. I rolled into town around 8 PM Friday night, and hit the MGM poker room by around 9 PM. I found the infamous blogger heavyweight game which had a list a mile long. I watched them go nutzo playing 1/2 NL for a while, and talked to a few bloggers while waiting on the list. I was eventually called to a 1/2 NL table near by that was a lot of fun. I was catching cards like mad, and sweeping pots. A few hours later, I had downed about 8 Blue moons, and was up a nice $150 for the session. I moved over to the Blogger HORSE table for a while, but could not get anything going, so just before 2 AM I decided to shut things down. Just for fun, I decided to check out the Aria hotel in city center that I thought was opening that weekend. I wandered into a completely empty casino, except for some construction workers here and there. I gave myself a tour of the unopened Aria casino, and nobody seemed to care.

Saturday morning, I slept in till about noon, and got myself to Caesars just in time for the Blogger Tournament, but not in time to get anything to eat/drink yet for the day. So instead of pounding drinks right away, I laid low awaiting a break to grab some lunch. I had a great starting table that featured over my stay Iggy, Bayne, Pauly, Garth, Smokkee, Astin, April, and others. I had a tough time early on, gifting Bayne a few chips, but making a good fold. A couple breaks in I was still around the starting stack of $7,500 and in push or fold mode. I was executing the push or fold like a champ for a while eventually doubling through on a 40/60 all-in preflop hand. I would then get it all-in preflop with 99 against 55 for about a 30k pot (1.5x average stack), but you guys can guess what happened. I regrouped for a Saturday night session at MGM. Saturday night, I was off on my own table and winning nicely again. I caught AA and got into a 3-way All-in pre flop hand. I would catch AA again and win another nice pot. I noticed PokerPeaker, and Dr. Chaco's wife at an adjacent table, and decided to make a move off of a pretty fishy table. I had to rathole a bunch of chips to get down to $200. I stopped catching cards at the new table, but it was great to catch up with peaker, and the the others at the table were super talkative and friendly. I was going nowhere in chips though until I caught AKs around 2AM. This was a tough hand, and I probably screwed it up, but what are you going to do at 1/2 NL. So I raise it up to $10 from EP with AKs and get two callers. Flop drops 442 with two of my suit. Pretty much a jackpot flop at 1/2 NL with 15 outs. I open up to $15, get reraised to $30 by a semi-shorty, and then get popped again to $85. WTF! I tank, and really want to fold here, but it is tough. The $30 reraise does not bother me because I have odds to catch against him. The $85 re-reraise seems way out of line for a set, and it is not a good board for a set. Naked 4 out there after a $10 open? The $85 re-reraise just screams of an overpair. 99-AA probably. AA or KK don't look likely because no preflop re-raise. So all 15 outs still look good. I do the math, and I don't need much in implied odds for even the one card draw. I make the call, other guy folds. Turn is a blank. I check, and my opponent shoves all-in. I tank again. Pot-odds are good if I have 12 outs. So as long as this is not AA I am cool with a call here. I eventually make the call, and lose to 22 (a flopped boat). The $85 re-reraise preflop through me completely off. I personally think that was a bad play, because with anything less I would have folded and not paid the boat another penny, but it worked this time. In how many ways did I screw this hand up? It was around 2:30 AM so I packed things up, down about $75 for the night.

Sunday morning, I took care of some FantasySportsLive.com business, and headed over to the blogger football party. The room they had reserved was sick, with a pool table, leather couches, and a bunch of flat screen TVs. One was bigger than anything I have ever seen before (80+ inches?). I did not have any bets on the early games, but took San Diego +3 (+110) for $80, after Joe Speaker showed me his $100 moneyline bet on the same game. I booked it online with bodog. Around 3PM, I packed up and headed home. Never played any -EV games the whole trip, but won some decent cash playing NL holdem, and another $88 when the San Diego pick came in. As usual it was quite a blast, but too short for my liking.

Week 13 Fantasy Football Results - Blogger Trip Status

After my 0-5-1 performance in week 12, week 13 was an improvement. Not quite as good as things look on the leaderboard below with me tied for first in wins, and third in cash. I was 17-18 overall, with a winning weekend snatched away by a late meaningless play in the Sunday night game. That shit happens, so no complaints here. The real problem with my team was that my Quarterback, Kicker, and Defense, who were all projected to be the best by me, or one of the top three by pretty much all published projections all sucked big time. Pittsburgh giving up 3 TD passes in the 4th quarter at home to Oakland, come on? Anyway, I learned another important and inexpensive lesson in week 13. Do not over spend on your kicker. Kickers are the highest variance position by far. There is no reason to spend big and then have your kicker disappoint on Sunday. You should always select a cheap kicker who does not need to put much up to minimize your variance, and save the money for elsewhere. On site x, because they never update the player cap values, that means I will be going with either Barth or Stover from now on. Since we are running out of time this season, I plan on going much bigger this weekend , and taking over first on both cash and wins be next week.

I will be out for the Winter 09 Las Vegas festivities, but can't make it until Friday night. I will see everyone at the MGM, after I roll into town.

Week 12 Fantasy Football Results

It was an interesting week over at "site x". They decided to run thanksgiving only leagues (we are so flattered that they copy everything we do), as well as there usual assortment of offerings. Most of my solid picks for the week were playing on Thanksgiving, so I tried out a Thanksgiving only league, and found out that my perfect team was well under the generous (unadjusted for the lack of games) salary cap. This basically made the thanksgiving leagues "no cap", and with only three games on the schedule, the risk of identical fantasy teams is too high, so I decided to pass. So to get my Thursday picks in play, I would need to enter the Thu-Mon leagues. The problem with a Thursday through Monday Fantasy Football League is that there are a bunch of injury game time decisions on Sunday, and you will not have access to that info on Thursday. Also, I would be in Vegas for the Thanksgiving holiday, so I decided to skip the Sun-Mon leagues.

Ultimately, I just entered (10) $5 leagues this week. I was only matched in 6 leagues, so I guess they only ran (6) $5 leagues that included all games for the week. The risk of setting a fantasy football team too early is very real, and I paid the price when Warner did not play (I did not have him, but did have Fitz and Boldin), and the Arizona receivers had a poor week as a result. I ended up going 0-5-1 for the week which is a big disappointment, but I think I learned an inexpensive lesson. I will now only enter the Sun only leagues or possible the Sun-Mon leagues, so I can have complete injury info. I will probably go all-in in week 13, because week 16/17 are not good for fantasy football, and I have just three weeks left before I quit until next season.

Profiting From Fantasy Sports

There has been a ton of competition out there since we launched FantasySportsLive.com in June 2007. Daily Fantasy Sports is very beatable long-term just like online poker is, but I can't play on my site, and the competitive sites just really have not been there yet. I mean, it would have to be worth my while to get my fantasy game up to top level, and unless I am going to get paid for that, why bother? Well in a way there is a dream come true out there. There is a new site, that was specifically designed for daily fantasy sports contest hogs. A site where there can only be one top of the food chain, and that one player gets to take ALL of the website's action. I would drop a link right now, but I am not sure if I can actually recommend it. I mean if you play there at the lowest stakes you will get randomly matched with either me, or the other two current contest hogs on the site. Since all three are pretty good, it probably would not be worth bothering, unless you have some cash to contribute. Just head over to Fantasy Sports Live where you can a least chose your competition and not get stuck against one of the top three daily fantasy players in the world every time.

Top of the Food Chain

So I decided to start this grand experiment last weekend for Fantasy Football. The contest hog ability of this new site is flawless. They only offer one Salary Cap Structure that is way too loose, and makes for much less fiddling with your team. I built up some fantasy football player projections for Daily on the FSL blog, and used them to build my team. I found out immediately that I could get 5 to 6 of the top choices easy. So I spent about an hour agonizing over the last 3 to 4 picks. I deposited $50, got a $10 bonus and entered (12) $5 Heads Up leagues. Contest hogging is a breeze on this site, as with two mouse clicks you can enter the same team over and over (you could enter 1000s of $5 leagues in less than 10 minutes). Sunday morning I tweaked my team just a bit, but left it as is in two of the 12 leagues. I ended up going 9-3, and would have gone 10-2 had I fixed all of my fantasy teams. In these 12 leagues, I was matched up against the number one player from FSL and beat him 3 out of 4 times, only losing in a league that I did not update (Could have been 4/4). So far so good, but am I ready to take a stab at the top of the food chain yet? My projections seem pretty solid, and better than most for daily. They are also purely statistical projections, and a bunch of projections out there are not statistical, and are less accurate as a resut. So I entered (18) $5 leagues that included Thursdays game. I was matched with the top player from FSL again a bunch, and I beat him again. I also noticed that his QB selection was interesting. Looking again at the cap levels, I found that Warner was grossly undervalued, and that even though he was not projected as the top QB, I would be forced to pick him up for value. I adjusted my team accordingly, and figured that for the Sun/Mon leagues I would get him as my matchup again in most leagues, and that 6 of our players would be the same. For the three different picks, mine would each be better. I basically had what I felt was the best possible team anyone could possibly make under the cap. I deposited $300 more, and entered a shit load of $5 and even a few $10 leagues. Top my surprise, the top player from FSL did not show up at all on Sunday. It was the top player from this new site, and he must have entered 85% of the leagues that they were running, as I was matched with him in like 85% of my leagues. Oh, shit! Well I looked at his team, and though different then what I had expected to be up against, I still had the better team. 6 identical picks, and I am still better in the odd 3 choices. Well I had a pretty good run on Sunday, and all I need is 6 fantasy points out of Chris Johnson tonight to sweep the top player and continue my god like running. Johnson has scored at least twice that in every game this year, so I am not very worried. I will post a screen shot of my win loss record in HU tomorrow and it is going to be ridiculous. Based on how strong I feel my team is next week, I will probably just let it all ride again, and try to get to the top of the food chain. Once you can beat the top player on the site, he should back off, and let you get the easy match-ups. I may be just a week away.


Edit: Win Loss Record Through Two Weekends Shown Below

Week 10 Results

9-3

Week 11 Results

62-7

Week 11 Sun/Mon League Results

50-1

Note: All results are for Heads-Up Leagues