Sunday, October 26, 2008

RTrizzle and Kev Tie in Week 8 of the BFFB

RTrizzle won the first week of the Blogger Fantasy Football Battle this season, and has now tied the top score in week 8. Kev also put up a high score of 134.8 this week against 28 runners. The top score reserves Kev a spot in the TOC. bonds was out of the points again this week allowing the leader board to tighten up a bit. I have quietly moved up to the 4th highest linked blogger, and have won $90 so far to contribute to the TOC pool. Schaubs continues to find himself in tough contests and has been getting shut out of the cash. This has not stopped him from making some solid gains on the leader board. Maybe next week he will get some cash to go with the bragging rights.

To win any extra prizes in the blogger battle you must have a blog that meets the guidelines of the promotion. If we do not have you linked up yet in the leader board, please leave a link in the comments so we can verify your blog, and get you eligible for the bonus prizes. Complete week 8 results and season standings are shown below.


Qualified for Tournament of Champions ($150 Min. Added)
Rtrizzle, AlCan'tHang, bonds, Kaiseroll13, Randy, pokernut0826, Kev
Top Scores of the Season ($100/$50/$25 Added)
Randy 147.3 (Week 5)
bonds 142.3 (Week 6)
RTrizzle 142.3 (Week 1)
AlCantHang 139.7 (Week 2)
Blinders Dead Money in TOC Pool
$90 so far.
Points Leaders ($100/$50/$25 Added)

bonds 362.18
Buffalo66 353.45
RTrizzle 319.50
Kaiseroll13 266.20
AlCantHang 261.04
Kev 256.75
Blinders 220.97
Resino 219.87
Schaubs 208.87
Joe Speaker 206.80
Big Pirate 190.79
pokernut0826 169.68
Randy 155.74
bayne_s 140.58
Miami Don 131.53
Johnny Sixx 126.95
I Am Legion 117.12
ebk03001 112.07
love_elf 89.28
carmine316 87.65
Capybara Carnival 86.70
Canable 82.90
D-Train 71.56
SHaMRoCKeD 65.60
kinnehboo 61.97
Zeem 56.87
Madden 48.42
lexx575 47.16
only1calvary 46.85
cyandle 44.31
DARTHraider 44.21
Turf Toes 43.82
PachucaSunrise 41.32
HermWarfare 38.75
JayP 37.37
Toddlers 35.47
tw 35.35
jbvolfan 33.99
Stop Sign 32.65
Bobby262626 32.52
Humperdink 31.44
jek187 30.03
Muffins 29.22
lakewoods 28.44

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Thursday, October 23, 2008

Exploiting NFL Halftime Bets

Not much brewing lately over here in Blinders gambooling land. I have been leaving tons of money on the table by not playing the beginner S&Gs on Bodog every night. When I have played them my bankroll just goes up, up, up. When the Bodonkey starts up again you know I will be three tabeling those nights for sure. I did get my withdrawal check from Bodog after about a month of waiting. I have also been betting about 1/3 of my Bodog roll each weekend on NFL games. I have booked winning but not spectacular weekends every week so far this season (did not start betting until week 3). My Bodog roll is now in safe 4 figure territory. Part of my success is due to the NFL halftime betting lines, and I wanted to share my thoughts on them.

Halftime betting lines allow you to bet the second half of a football game against a point spread that was generated at the half. They are probably the best value there is in football betting. It is one thing to try and handicap a game that has not been played yet, and quite another to handicap the second half after watching the first. When you watch the first half of a game there is just so much more information to use when placing your bet. Halftime bets can be used as a hedge against a poor looking full game bet, as a way of winning even more when your full game bet looks good, and a way of getting action on a game that you had no idea on what side to bet before the game. I use them for all three purposes.

There are a couple of things to know about the lines that they put up at halftime. The most important, is they tend to put them near where the full game line was when possible. If the game is tracking anywhere near to the full game spread, the halftime line will probably be set to land near the full game spread. For example if the favorite was -7 for the game and leads by 4 at halftime, they will likely be 3 point favorites in the halftime spread. Even if the game is tied at halftime in the above example, the line will end up getting set somewhere near the favorite -7 points. I am not exactly sure why they do this, but it will allow you to hedge a bad bet with little risk more often than not. In the example where the 7 point favorite is tied at halftime. If you no longer like the favorite to cover the 7 points based on what you watched in the first half, you may be able to get the dog +7 in the second half, effectively canceling out your bet.

Another angle that you can use is piling on to a winning bet. Lets say you bet the favorite to cover a 7 point spread and they lead by 17 at halftime. Since they like to set the line somewhere near the original line, they will probably make the halftime bet a pick rather than make the favorite have to cover even more than 17 points overall. If you are watching a blowout in the making, they are giving you great value at a pick for a team that is crushing its opponent.

The last way that I exploit halftime bets is when I did not even take a side in the game, but I watched the first half, and certain key things happened. Lets say it is just one of those games where the better team just can't do anything right in the first half. They are marching up and down the field, but are turning the ball over in the red zone. Or there defense is solid, but they gave up a return TD on offense. You basically look at the halftime score, and call BS. The score does not really reflect what you just watched. When the line goes up sometimes you will see great value in a team that was struggling or had crazy things happen in the first half, but is good enough to overcome in the second half. When I see a crazy first half, I am always trying to anticipate where they will put the halftime line, and how it can be exploited.

If you guys are not loading up on Football bets this weekend there is always Fantasy Sports Live. Parlay the performance of real life athletes into cold hard cash everyday at FSL. See you in the blogger battle this weekend.

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Monday, October 20, 2008

Pokernut0826 Wins Week 7 of the Blogger Battle

pokernut0826 takes down week 7 of the BFFB at FSL with a high score of 124.9 vs. a field of 26 runners. Bonds for once was out of the points allowing some ground to be gained by the others. Results are shown below. Checkout the Fantasy Sports Live Blog for Sunday's with Dr. Pauly results.

Blogger Fantasy Football Battle Week 7 Results


Qualified for Tournament of Champions ($150 Min. Added)
Rtrizzle, AlCan'tHang, bonds, Kaiseroll13, Randy, pokernut0826


Top Scores of the Season ($100/$50/$25 Added)
Randy 147.3 (Week 5)
bonds 142.3 (Week 6)
RTrizzle 142.3 (Week 1)
AlCantHang 139.7 (Week 2)


Blinders Dead Money in TOC Pool
$70 so far.


Points Leaders ($100/$50/$25 Added)

bonds 362.18
Buffalo66 300.25
Kaiseroll13 266.20
AlCantHang 223.42
Resino 219.87
RTrizzle 213.10
Joe Speaker 206.80
Blinders 188.89
pokernut0826 169.68
Schaubs 165.43
Big Pirate 160.07
Kev 150.36
Miami Don 131.53
Johnny Sixx 126.95
I Am Legion 117.12
Randy 94.31
bayne_s 93.00
carmine316 87.65
Capybara Carnival 86.70
Canable 82.90
ebk03001 78.43
D-Train 71.56
SHaMRoCKeD 65.60
kinnehboo 61.97
love_elf 59.77
Madden 48.42
lexx575 47.16
only1calvary 46.85
cyandle 44.31
DARTHraider 44.21
Turf Toes 43.82
PachucaSunrise 41.32
HermWarfare 38.75
JayP 37.37
tw 35.35
jbvolfan 33.99
Stop Sign 32.65
Bobby262626 32.52
Humperdink 31.44
jek187 30.03
Muffins 29.22
Zeem 28.44
lakewoods 28.44

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Thursday, October 16, 2008

Game Over

McCain is an idiot, and Obama is a very likable guy who is a great communicator. Game over. In a debate format that was about as perfect as it could get for John McCain to explain his superior economic policies, he failed. The race is now over. McCain is simply too old, too poor a speaker, and must have horrible advisors. If given the choice of who I would like to sit down and have a beer with it would be smooth talker Obama before crotchety old man McCain by a landslide. As much as I don’t like Obama’s policies I have to admit that I like the man. McCain completely blew it by not even brining up Obama’s welfare plan disguised as a tax cut. Now the American people will never know. Is he expecting the media to reveal this? Never once did he go to his strength which is foreign policy. Where was his promise to win the war vs. Obama’s white flag of surrender policy? The interesting thing is that McCain beat out Romney when foreign policy was the main issue. Now that the economy is the main issue, we are stuck with the wrong candidate. I have no doubt that Romney would have crushed Obama on the economy, but McCain is incapable.

We are now headed into a deep recession and possible a depression (anyone know what the difference is?). As such I have liquidated the bulk of my stocks, and will just crawl under a rock for a few years. The recession will ultimately be a good thing for the economy. I think part of the reason that we are in this mess is the extreme efforts we have taken over the years to fight off what is a natural part of the business cycle. Please stop sending us stimulus checks. If we do not have enough money to buy anything because we are too deep in debt, it makes no sense to just go deeper into debt to be able to spend. Remember we are running the biggest deficit ever right now. When the government sends out “stimulus checks”, and is running a deficit it must borrow the money. Ever wonder who pays that back? We do. Stop it. Let the economy find a natural bottom, so we have a place to grow from. Stop giving crystal meth to the guy who has not slept in weeks. Please!

Now that I have accepted the fact that Obama will be the next president, I can move on, and stop getting pissed off by this election cycle. It pisses me off to no end that I could have easily won the debate last night, but our Republican candidate got crushed. This is how I would have closed the debate (and McCain should have to).

Our great nation is facing the biggest financial crisis since the great depression and the biggest threat to our security since the cold war. There are fundamental differences to the approach to these issues between me and my opponent. Under my administration we will kill terrorists, and win the first major war against terrorism in Iraq. My opponent will immediately put up the white flag, and allow Al Qaeda to claim victory. I will reduce government spending and balance the budget in my first term. My opponent will double to triple the already massive federal deficit. I have yet to hear how he proposes to balance the budget with his endless list of spending proposals. I will end the recession in short order by providing the required incentives to work hard and create jobs. My opponent will surely put us into a depression by implementing a tax policy that punishes hard work, raises the marginal income tax rate for everyone, and expands welfare to include up to 40% of American working families. History has shown that the worst possible government for the economy and stock market is a Democratic president and a Democratic congress with no checks and balances. You never hear a thing about my opponent crossing the isles, because he will not have to. Everyone is already on his side of the isle. If you are ready to let history repeat itself, if you are ready to lose the war on terrorism, if you are ready for a years and years of tough economic times, then go ahead and place your vote for my opponent. If you want America to become the great nation that it is capable of then please cast your vote for me.

This post has been brought to you by Blinders/Palin 2012. This will be my last political post.

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Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Journalism is Dead and Obama is a Socialist

I try to keep politics out of this space, but I don’t think I have ever been more upset with what is going on in a crucial election cycle. I simply can’t just sit back and watch this great country that I love turn socialist in front of my eyes. First off, journalism is effectively dead IMO. The liberal media is so intent on getting their choice elected this year that they have created an unfair playing field. With the exception of Fox News which leans Republican, but offers a “fair and balanced” reporting of the news including guest commentators from both parties, all other media outlets have basically turned into infomercials for their candidate of choice. The worst offender is Countdown with Keith Oberman which is nothing more than an hour dedicated to bashing McCain everyday disguised as a news show. Watch it sometime, and then tell me that it is a news show. This is followed up by CNN and the majors offering up a slanted view, represented by the talking head Democrats they invite on the show, while almost never offering any dissenting opinions. These news organizations are peddling there propaganda to an ill-informed American public who simply eats this crap up as if it was reality. Please let me know of any major news agency that has done any meaningful research into Obama’s past, or any real analysis of his all talk plans to fix the economy. Exactly what has Obama accomplished as a Senator? What are his ties with Ayers? How involved is he with the massive voter fraud perpetrated by Acorn? Most importantly what are the details of his promise to lower taxes on 95% of working families, and raise taxes on the top 5%? How much is he and the Democrats in power responsible for the current financial mess we are in? How much of the stock market crash can be attributed to people liquidating positions before the higher capital gains tax comes into effect under an Obama administration? You will not hear about any of this from the liberal media, because both Biden and Golden Boy Obama get a free pass on everything. You will here a bunch of McCain and Palin bashing. My favorite is the media's obsession with “TrooperGate”. Palin simply fired one of her staff which she had numerous disagreements with. This is what leaders do. Do we want leaders without the balls to fire anyone? The trooper in question was a scumbag by all accounts, and was never actually fired. She was cleared of all wrong doing, but the spin was all about a couple partisan words in the report indicating that she “likely” abused her power, but broke no laws. So Palin gets run through a fine tooth comb, McCain is bashed on a regular basis, and we here nothing ever negative about their opponents past or policies. What a joke.

Well it does not take much actual research to determine that Obama is a Socialist intent on transferring America into a Socialist country. His 95% tax plan is a plan to “redistribute the wealth around” in his own words. A close analysis of the plan by the Wall Street Journal indicated that it is not really a tax cut, but a massive expansion of Welfare disguised as a tax cut. Click on the link and see for yourself. First off, about 33% of working families pay no income taxes. How do they get a “tax-cut” under Obama’s plan? They don’t. They get a Welfare check from the IRS disguised as a tax cut. 33% of America’s working families qualify for welfare under an Obama administration which has to be the largest expansion of Welfare in U.S. history. If you wonder why you don’t know any of this, you can thank the liberal media for hiding the details. So his plan is to rob money from the rich, and hand it out as welfare checks to the poor. Sound a little bit like socialism here? Worst of all his tax plan raises the marginal tax rates across the board for all levels of income. A marginal tax rate is what you pay for each additional dollar that you earn. This would be as high as 40% for low income families. His tax credits are so generous, that a steep phase out that would happen if you actually worked hard and earned more money. Earning more money is simply not worth it under Obama. His plan basically disincentives hard work for both the middle and upper class. The middle class would lose handouts if they worked harder, and the upper-class facing one of the biggest tax increases ever, are also less likely to work hard. So his plan rewards underachievers and punishes overachievers. When he talks about Bush’s broken policies, he is talking about Capitalism. He actually thinks capitalism does not work, and that is why he has laid out a Socialist agenda. A Socialist agenda that you will never here about until it is too late thanks to the adoring media. He is also a bold face liar. He has lied about reverend Wright, Ayers, Acorn, and his tax plan to the American people. He lied when he ran for the Illinois senate on a similar 95% plan, only to raise taxes once in office. His record is solidly tax and spend. He is as close to a pure pacifist liberal as you will ever see. When you have no actual record to speak of, character becomes important, and he is as shady as they come. It is doubtful he could pass the background check that many government workers must pass due to the shady characters in his past

So McCain is forced to run “attack ads” to help the American people understand who Obama really is, because the media will never tell us. The media in turn spins this as desperation and a focus away from the economy. The media does not actually research any of the McCain claims, they just dismiss them all as false. Now McCain needs to take some of the blame for getting beat by a socialist opponent. When he starts getting “Mavricky” he pisses me off as well as his Republican base. His bailout plan for mortgages sounds more like an Obama socialist policy than a free market solution. But if you take that stupid idea away, his economic policies are what it will take to turn the economy around. The socialist policies of Obama which take the incentive away from hard work and success will surely lead us into a deep recession/depression. Even if Obama can’t turn the economy around, he can always lay the blame on Bush for everything, like he always does.

Is there any hope that McCain can turn this around? Sure, but he needs to take the gloves off in the next debate. He needs to call Obama a “Socialist” and a “Liar” over and over again to his face, and explain exactly why he believes this to be true, and then let the American people decide. Unfortunately, not that many will watch the debate, and no matter what happens during the debate the liberal media will say Obama won it. He needs to not back down at all from the negative ads, and paint Obama as the Socialist liar that he is. America should be scared to death right now, as our great nation will surely be damaged by a socialist administration. While other nations are recovering from this crisis we will drop deeper into it, critically losing our financial standing in the world. Short of getting McCain in, we must put in place a congress that objects to Obama’s Socialist policies. The current Democratic congress will rubber stamp everything that he does. We need enough Republicans in the Senate so that they can effectively Filibuster. I would be perfectly happy with the Senate Filibustering for four years straight and blocking all Socialist legislation if that’s what it takes. If it gets bad enough under an Obama administration, I will really consider leaving this great nation for a Capitalistic society, if there are any left.

Monday, October 13, 2008

Bonds Wins Week 6 of the Blogger Battle

bonds continued his domination of the Blogger Fantasy Football Battle at FantasySportsLive.com, by winning his second week, and pulling further ahead in the season standings. Bonds bested the field of 22 with a high fantasy score of 142.3. The blogger turnout is still pretty disappointing this year. It looks like the $500 in added cash will be distributed among the 9 or so bloggers who are competing consistently this year. Since you can win a TOC seat and get the high score in any week, it is never too late to grab some free bonus cash. In these economic times, I am amazed that so many who played last year are passing this year. Complete results and season standings are below:


Qualified for Tournament of Champions ($150 Min. Added)
Rtrizzle, AlCan'tHang, bonds, Kaiseroll13, Randy

Top Scores of the Season ($100/$50/$25 Added)
Randy 147.3 (Week 5)
bonds 142.3 (Week 6)
RTrizzle 142.3 (Week 1)
AlCantHang 139.7 (Week 2)

Blinders Dead Money in TOC Pool
$70 so far.

Points Leaders ($100/$50/$25 Added)

bonds 362.18
Kaiseroll13 266.20
Buffalo66 266.07
RTrizzle 213.10
AlCantHang 192.50
Joe Speaker 174.37
Resino 174.02
Blinders 160.45
Big Pirate 118.22
I Am Legion 117.12
Schaubs 114.17
Miami Don 101.93
Randy 94.31
bayne_s 93.00
Kev 91.16
carmine316 87.65
Capybara Carnival 86.70
Canable 82.90
D-Train 71.56
pokernut0826 67.15
SHaMRoCKeD 65.60
kinnehboo 61.97
love_elf 59.77
Johnny Sixx 54.45
Madden 48.42
lexx575 47.16
only1calvary 46.85
cyandle 44.31
DARTHraider 44.21
Turf Toes 43.82
ebk03001 42.18
PachucaSunrise 41.32
JayP 37.37
tw 35.35
jbvolfan 33.99
Stop Sign 32.65
Bobby262626 32.52
Humperdink 31.44
jek187 30.03
Muffins 29.22
Zeem 28.44
lakewoods 28.44

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Monday, October 06, 2008

Week 5 Blogger Fantasy Football Battle Results

This week we had 22 runners with Randy getting the win. I placed second in my 10 player fantasy football contest and won $30. I have now won $70 so far, all of which will be forfeited into the season ending TOC. bonds maintains the overall lead. Results and info are below, and check out the FSL Blog for Sundays with Dr. Pauly results and standings.
Week 5 BFFB Results


Qualified for Tournament of Champions ($150 Min. Added)
Rtrizzle, AlCan'tHang, bonds, Kaiseroll13, Randy
Top Scores of the Season ($100/$50/$25 Added)
Randy 147.3 (Week 5)
RTrizzle 142.3 (Week 1)
AlCantHang 139.7 (Week 2)
Blinders Dead Money in TOC Pool
$70 so far.
Points Leaders ($100/$50/$25 Added)
bonds 267.86
Buffalo66 227.57
Kaiseroll13 199.51
AlCantHang 192.50
RTrizzle 179.76
Joe Speaker 174.37
Blinders 160.45
Resino 138.38
Big Pirate 118.22
Schaubs 114.17
Miami Don 101.93
Randy 94.31
bayne_s 93.00
Kev 91.16
I Am Legion 88.68
carmine316 87.65
Capybara Carnival 86.70
Canable 82.90
D-Train 71.56
pokernut0826 67.15
kinnehboo 61.97
love_elf 59.77
Madden 48.42
only1calvary 46.85
cyandle 44.31
DARTHraider 44.21
Turf Toes 43.82
PachucaSunrise 41.32
JayP 37.37
SHaMRoCKeD 35.78
tw 35.35
jbvolfan 33.99
Stop Sign 32.65
Bobby262626 32.52
jek187 30.03
Muffins 29.22
Zeem 28.44
lakewoods 28.44

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Wednesday, October 01, 2008

Game Theory and Bet Sizing

I have been trying to use the principles of game theory to improve my game for a while now. Poker is a game of incomplete information, and game theory tells you how to maximize your advantage in these types of games and situations. A player whose game was fully developed using game theory could tell you exactly how they would play their hand in all situations, and even if you knew this, you would still not be able to beat them. I have always wanted to post my exact strategies and challenge someone to exploit them, but my game still needs a bit of work. There are a few areas where my game can be exploited and I am painfully aware of most of them. Luckily only a few players out there are capable of recognizing these weaknesses and actively exploiting them. So even though there is a hole here and there in my game, it is pretty rare someone jumps in and tries to take advantage of my specific weaknesses.

What I wanted to post about today is how you can use game theory to make your decisions easier, while still increasing your profitability. Game theory tells you to disguise your hand by playing many different ranges of hands in the exact same way. You also determine these ranges in a way that the percentages that you fold/call/raise/reraise can’t be exploited. For example if you are bluffing 20% of the time in a specific situation and everyone knows this, they still can’t exploit it because 80% of the time in the same situation you are not bluffing. Someone trying to exploit your bluff percentage will win a bit when they are right, but will lose more when they are wrong, making the overall strategy –EV for your opponent.

One way to disguise your hand is by bet sizing. Game theory tells you to not vary your bet sizing based on hidden information (your actual hand). Your bet sizing can vary based on public information like your position, your stack size, the number of active players in the hand and there positions and stack sizes, and the board cards. One of the most complicated things in NL Holdem is to determine proper bet sizes. When you can eliminate your actual hand from the equation the decision becomes much easier. This easier decision also better disguises your hand, so your game is simplified while also improving. I will give a couple of examples here. When I want to open raise preflop in MTTs I simply raise 3x the blinds, no matter what cards that I have. If there are limpers in before me (public information), I may raise a bit more based on this. As the MTT progresses and the blinds become a higher percentage of the stack sizes this is also public information. You could lower the open raise amount at that point, but because there are antes involved late, you should also raise a bit more. This actually becomes a bit of a wash, so you can just continue to raise 3x the blinds. When I start jamming preflop late, this is based on my current stack size (public information), and not on my starting cards.

Early in MTTs I play pretty tight, so when I do raise preflop from early position, you can be pretty sure that I have a big pair, or big ace most of the time. My range widens as my position improves, but is still pretty compressed even when “stealing” from the button. So hopefully my raise will get some respect and limit the amount of players seeing the flop to 2-4 total. Now the flop comes which is public information. So now I am forced with deciding to continuation bet or not. If I do C-Bet, the amount will not be based on my actual hand. I just C-Bet 2/3s of the pot in general. You can make a size adjustment based on the texture of the board and number of opponents, but not on your own hand. So if I am allowed to get a C-Bet in, I will go ahead and make it if I started with a pig pair and now hold an over pair, if I started with a big ace and hit either the Ace or my kicker, or if I completely missed and there are just one or two opponents. So when you see my C-bet, it means that a certain percentage of the time I have an over pair, a certain percentage of the time I have top pair, a certain percentage of the time I have a monster, and a certain percentage of the time I have nothing. The amount of the C-bet tells you nothing, because it is not based on my actual hand. The fact that I did C-bet does not really narrow my range either. It was pretty tight already with the preflop raise. So what happens is that my C-bets can’t really be exploited. If you reraise my C-Bet, you are asking for trouble unless you can beat an over pair or TPTK. Now there are times when I don’t C-Bet. This is typically when too many people call preflop, I am out of position, and I completely miss. To balance that out, you also need to miss a C-bet most of the time you flop a monster in EP, and occasionally when you flop an over pair or top pair. So when I C-bet my hand is disguised, and when I don’t C-bet it is still disguised.

What is the moral to this story? If you are adjusting your bet sizes in NL Holdem based on your actual hand, you are giving away information which will lower your EV, while at the same time making your bet size decision more complex. Why go to this trouble if it is hurting your game?

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