Friday, February 04, 2011

Superbowl Pick

I have had this thing locked down for the last few years. This year I don't feel as strong as the last few years, so don't bet the whole farm. The spread is falling between GB -2.5 to -3, and I will be going with Green Bay. This is not a huge play, as I am giving just slight edge to GB of say 4-6 points. My reasons for liking Green Bay are as follows.

1) Strength of Schedule
Green Bay was 3-3 vs. playoff teams in the regular season. Pittsburgh was 2-4 with all of their losses coming against playoff teams.

Edge GB

2) Common Opponents
Both teams played ATL, NYJ, NE, and BUF with the first three making the playoffs. Green Bay did better than Pittsburgh against all 4 common opponents. By large margins in some cases

Edge GB

3) Playoff Momentum

Green Bay has looked very good on the road over three playoff games. Pittsburgh has won two straight at home in the playoffs and has not been overly impressive. The Superbowl will be on a neutral field which should make GB look better and PIT worse than they have looked so far in the playoffs.

Edge GB

4) Game Location (Dallas - Dome)

GB has looked much more impressive than PIT when playing on Turf. Pittsburgh's passing game is significantly worse on Turf, while GB's holds up well. PIT runs well on turf, but not enough to make up for a much worse passing performance

Edge GB

5) Superbowl Experience

PIT gets the edge here, but what happened last year when NO with no experience, knocked off IND who had won recently.

Edge PIT

6) Rushing Defense

PIT is tops in the league, GB is respectable

Edge PIT

7) Coaching

I don't see and edge here either way.

Tie.

Overall Edge: Green Bay in most important categories

Labels:

6 Comments:

At 10:33 AM, Blogger WindBreak247 said...

Not that I disagree with your pick, but did you consider the absence of Roethlisberger and/or Polamalu when it came to W/L comparisons?

 
At 9:59 AM, Blogger analytics said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 1:27 AM, Blogger jimi said...

ps vita forum has lots of the tremendous games that are usually enjoyed by the brave players beacause these games score a sesquipedalian tradition of creativity.
ps vita forum

 
At 7:34 AM, Blogger luky begum said...

This is such an interesting blog. You are very knowledgeable about this subject. Please check out my site.
Poker Strategy

 
At 7:35 AM, Blogger luky begum said...

This is such an interesting blog. You are very knowledgeable about this subject. Please check out my site.
Poker Strategy

 
At 9:04 PM, Blogger luky begum said...

Excellent blog you’ve got here.It’s difficult to find high-quality writing like yours nowadays. I really appreciate individuals like you! Take care!! Please check out my site.
Daily Fantasy Sports Strategy

 

Post a Comment

<< Home