I have had this thing locked down for the last few years. This year I don't feel as strong as the last few years, so don't bet the whole farm. The spread is falling between GB -2.5 to -3, and I will be going with Green Bay. This is not a huge play, as I am giving just slight edge to GB of say 4-6 points. My reasons for liking Green Bay are as follows.
1) Strength of Schedule
Green Bay was 3-3 vs. playoff teams in the regular season. Pittsburgh was 2-4 with all of their losses coming against playoff teams.
2) Common Opponents
Both teams played ATL, NYJ, NE, and BUF with the first three making the playoffs. Green Bay did better than Pittsburgh against all 4 common opponents. By large margins in some cases
3) Playoff Momentum
Green Bay has looked very good on the road over three playoff games. Pittsburgh has won two straight at home in the playoffs and has not been overly impressive. The Superbowl will be on a neutral field which should make GB look better and PIT worse than they have looked so far in the playoffs.
4) Game Location (Dallas - Dome)
GB has looked much more impressive than PIT when playing on Turf. Pittsburgh's passing game is significantly worse on Turf, while GB's holds up well. PIT runs well on turf, but not enough to make up for a much worse passing performance
5) Superbowl Experience
PIT gets the edge here, but what happened last year when NO with no experience, knocked off IND who had won recently.
6) Rushing Defense
PIT is tops in the league, GB is respectable
I don't see and edge here either way.
Overall Edge: Green Bay in most important categories