Monday, November 23, 2009

Profiting From Fantasy Sports

There has been a ton of competition out there since we launched in June 2007. Daily Fantasy Sports is very beatable long-term just like online poker is, but I can't play on my site, and the competitive sites just really have not been there yet. I mean, it would have to be worth my while to get my fantasy game up to top level, and unless I am going to get paid for that, why bother? Well in a way there is a dream come true out there. There is a new site, that was specifically designed for daily fantasy sports contest hogs. A site where there can only be one top of the food chain, and that one player gets to take ALL of the website's action. I would drop a link right now, but I am not sure if I can actually recommend it. I mean if you play there at the lowest stakes you will get randomly matched with either me, or the other two current contest hogs on the site. Since all three are pretty good, it probably would not be worth bothering, unless you have some cash to contribute. Just head over to Fantasy Sports Live where you can a least chose your competition and not get stuck against one of the top three daily fantasy players in the world every time.

Top of the Food Chain

So I decided to start this grand experiment last weekend for Fantasy Football. The contest hog ability of this new site is flawless. They only offer one Salary Cap Structure that is way too loose, and makes for much less fiddling with your team. I built up some fantasy football player projections for Daily on the FSL blog, and used them to build my team. I found out immediately that I could get 5 to 6 of the top choices easy. So I spent about an hour agonizing over the last 3 to 4 picks. I deposited $50, got a $10 bonus and entered (12) $5 Heads Up leagues. Contest hogging is a breeze on this site, as with two mouse clicks you can enter the same team over and over (you could enter 1000s of $5 leagues in less than 10 minutes). Sunday morning I tweaked my team just a bit, but left it as is in two of the 12 leagues. I ended up going 9-3, and would have gone 10-2 had I fixed all of my fantasy teams. In these 12 leagues, I was matched up against the number one player from FSL and beat him 3 out of 4 times, only losing in a league that I did not update (Could have been 4/4). So far so good, but am I ready to take a stab at the top of the food chain yet? My projections seem pretty solid, and better than most for daily. They are also purely statistical projections, and a bunch of projections out there are not statistical, and are less accurate as a resut. So I entered (18) $5 leagues that included Thursdays game. I was matched with the top player from FSL again a bunch, and I beat him again. I also noticed that his QB selection was interesting. Looking again at the cap levels, I found that Warner was grossly undervalued, and that even though he was not projected as the top QB, I would be forced to pick him up for value. I adjusted my team accordingly, and figured that for the Sun/Mon leagues I would get him as my matchup again in most leagues, and that 6 of our players would be the same. For the three different picks, mine would each be better. I basically had what I felt was the best possible team anyone could possibly make under the cap. I deposited $300 more, and entered a shit load of $5 and even a few $10 leagues. Top my surprise, the top player from FSL did not show up at all on Sunday. It was the top player from this new site, and he must have entered 85% of the leagues that they were running, as I was matched with him in like 85% of my leagues. Oh, shit! Well I looked at his team, and though different then what I had expected to be up against, I still had the better team. 6 identical picks, and I am still better in the odd 3 choices. Well I had a pretty good run on Sunday, and all I need is 6 fantasy points out of Chris Johnson tonight to sweep the top player and continue my god like running. Johnson has scored at least twice that in every game this year, so I am not very worried. I will post a screen shot of my win loss record in HU tomorrow and it is going to be ridiculous. Based on how strong I feel my team is next week, I will probably just let it all ride again, and try to get to the top of the food chain. Once you can beat the top player on the site, he should back off, and let you get the easy match-ups. I may be just a week away.

Edit: Win Loss Record Through Two Weekends Shown Below

Week 10 Results


Week 11 Results


Week 11 Sun/Mon League Results


Note: All results are for Heads-Up Leagues

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At 8:58 PM, Blogger Buffalo66 said...

Wow. Where do I start?

1) In the first part you say this "site x" is not worth playing at, you cannot recommend it and FSL is better.

In the second part you say you are dominating all the top players, and your win rate is ridiculous. Sounds like this site is great for you, but no one else?

Doesn't make any sense.

2) "Site x" just installed a new algorithm for matching opponents, which might affect your future match-ups. (I guess if you are leveraged 100% this isn't an issue for you.)

3) I couldn't get on "site x" at all on Sunday before 1pm, which is why I didn't play any football, and probably why Kaiser wasn't there either.

At 10:24 AM, Blogger Blinders said...

I can't honestly recommend it when currently you are almost guaranteed to be blindly matched against a top player at the lowest stakes. If you are a contest hog, who does not care who you are matched up against, I would highly recommend the site, except for the fact that there are almost no beginners over there. Changing their algorithm would be an improvement for beginner players, and could change my opinion. BTW, I am now 70 - 10 on site x.

At 10:20 PM, Blogger luky begum said...

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