You Can't Put An Idiot On A Hand
I play mainly .50/1 NL Holdem ring games right now. You get a pretty good mix of decent players, gamblers, and beginners at this level. You can get yourself into some trouble, if you try to overanalyze what someone is doing when they don't really have a clue. You really should figure out who the total idiots are as soon as possible, and avoid trying to figure out what they are trying to do in a hand. They probably don't know what they are doing, and you will be wasting your time. Below is a very interesting hand from DoylesRoom over the weekend. I will state what my thoughts were at various points in the hand, and what I thought the likely holdings of my opponents were at the time. Follow along, and see if you can put either of these guys on a hand. Good Luck!
.50/1 NL Holdem Ring Game - DolylesRoom
Seat 1 : bums-r-us has $76
Seat 2 : plan B has $186.50
Seat 3 : sydom numspa has $191.36
Seat 4 : Blinders has $111.25
Seat 5 : glissdaddy has $110
Seat 6 : Speedwolf has $54.50
Seat 7 : rags2rich has $43
Seat 8 : Low Voltage has $59.98
Seat 9 : rr11 has $23
Speedwolf is the dealer.
Seat 4 : Blinders has Jc Js
sydom numspa called $1 and raised $3
I would rather be the open raiser with JJ, but this guy just beat me to it. I need to reraise him back to get see if he has my JJ beat.
Blinders called $4 and raised $3
rags2rich called $6.50 and raised $3
Low Voltage folded.
sydom numspa called $6
Blinders called $3
Wow, a re-reraise preflop. That is a strong move. This guy probably has a big pair (AA or KK), or might even have QQ or AK. The initial raiser just called. No way he has a big pair. He could have AK, AQ or a small pair. He is taking a big chance that I don't reraise again an amount that he can't call with those hands. Well it's only 3 more for a $30 pot, I have to call, but I will be playing my JJ like a small pair hoping to hit my set.
Board cards [Jd Qd Kh]
rags2rich bet $33 and is All-in
sydom numspa called $33
Blinders called $33
I hit my set, but I hate that flop. The re-reraiser could already have a higher set, but why push all-in at that point. He may be protecting it from the straight and flush draws out there. He would also likely do the same thing with AA and AK so I still am probably a favorite here. The other guy just calling that, and I am convinced that I am ahead of that guy, as I have pretty much eliminated KK and QQ from his holdings. Even if I lose to the first better, I can probably get some money out of the caller on the later streets, as he is getting close to pot committed. I call.
Board cards [Jd Qd Kh Ad]
sydom numspa checked.
Now that was about the worst imaginable turn card for me, and I am starting to not like my set anymore. I am getting beat right now by AA, KK, QQ, any two diamonds, any T, and the KT of diamonds would fill the Royal. If this guy bets big, I am going to have to fold my set. He checks, and I fear the trap, so I check behind.
Board cards [Jd Qd Kh Ad Ks]
sydom numspa bet $148.36 and is All-in
Cool, I hit my boat and this guy is all-in. Now this is something I have never seen before in a ring game. A massive all-in bet into an empty side pot with no more cards to come. This has got to be one of the strangest moves ever. What does this guy have, that would make him make this move. I have shown zero strength in this hand since I reraised $3 preflop, and have been pretty much a calling station. He can't think he is going to get a call here if my hand is weak, why not more of a value bet. AK is one of the holdings he could have. To him that is the second nutz behind AA, but I did not pop it again preflop, so how could I have the AA. If this guy has the nuts, why does he not want anymore money from me. Something is real fishy here, and I have a boat that will beat a lot of hands, and the pot will be real big. Before looking below, what do you think this guy has, that is consistent with how he played the hand. I am going to call and find out.
Blinders called $68.25 and is All-in
Seat 4 : Blinders has Jc Js
sydom numspa has Kd 5d
sydom numspa has Flush AKQJ5
Blinders has Full House : Jacks full of Kings
Blinders wins $134.96 with Full House : Jacks full of Kings
Whew! This guy only had the flush. He open raised with K5s, a loose aggressive preflop move I guess, but then he calls two preflop rerasies after that. He needed to fold that to pressure preflop. He did call, and flopped a flush draw with a pair, so the flop call seemed ok, as he was hoping I would come to. He turned the nut flush and did not bet it. I would have folded to a decent size bet on the turn with that board, and it would have been a good fold. The board pairs on the river and he shoves all-in to a player that has shown zero strength. He is only going to be called by a boat there, or possibly a lower flush, but lower flushes really were not possible with the preflop betting. He would have been better off just value betting that, and I probably would have only called saving him some money. Ok, what about the other guy who went all-in on the flop. See if you can put him on a hand before looking below. I had him down to AA, KK, QQ or AK.
Seat 7 : rags2rich has 2d 4c
rags2rich has Pair: Kings
Blinders wins $128.54 with Full House : Jacks full of Kings
Low Voltage : nh
Hand is over.
42o, are you kidding me! This guy min reraises an open and a reraise with that preflop? He had to fold, but I guess he was pot committed in the SB. If he is going to raise that, with his short stack, all-in was the only option. If he had went all-in preflop, we both will probably fold, and he wins the hand. On the all face flop, he can't make that all-in bluff, because that flop is going to hit the preflop callers hand everytime, and probably hit it hard. He would have been better off going all-in on an all small flop.
Did anyone come close to putting these guys on a hand? I guess not. You can't put a total idiot on a hand.