Friday, May 05, 2006

The Poker Gods Don't Seem To Want Me To Move Up

I would never do anything to piss off the poker Gods, as they have been very good to me, but I appear to be hopelessly stuck at the .50/1 nl level. This level is my ATM machine. It is good for a very consistent $30-40 per hour (4 tabling) long term. I have aspirations for much greater poker income, but I seem to get bitch slapped around when ever I move up to 1/2. This is getting really old. If you were to look at my pokertracker statistics you would laugh. I am a huge winner/100 hands at .50/1, and a huge loser/100 hands at 1/2. The key statistics like preflop raise%, voluntarily entered the pot%, showdown win%, and post flop aggression are very similar for the two levels. The luck factor is not. I have to be one of the most unlucky players ever at 1/2. I might have to just skip it and go straight to 2/4 at some point if I ever want to move up. I know this is what the Doubleas recommendation would be.

I have been playing a little bit of 1/2 lately, and starting to churn out some decent results, and move back towards the positive. I kicked Perry Friedman around a few weeks ago at 1/2 on FullTilt. I also needed to step up my FPP accumulation for the FullTilt WSOP freeroll, and 1/2 certainly helps to that effect. I 4-tabled 1/2 on FullTilt Wednesday night, and had a nice run clearing about $110 in profit in an hour plus about 250 FPPs. They play in general seemed pretty bad. Worse then I remembered. It felt like I was being a pussy and not taking advantage of the fish at 1/2 if I stayed in my .50/1 comfort zone.

I played some more today and got bitch slapped bad. This is the 1/2 I remember. I got my chips in as a ridiculous favorite, and get sucked out everytime. Today it was laughable. I pick up AA twice in the span of 5 hands (different tables). I have $120 in front both times as I usually buy in a little light at this level. Both times someone opens for $10. Both times, I reraise to $25. The size of the reraise does 2 things for me. It takes away thier odds to draw to the set (no rule of 10 based on my stack), and it gives me a good idea of their range if they call. I am figuring a pretty big pair or AK if they just call. If they reraise, the money is going all-in right there. If they fold, I'll just take the win and be happy. In this case both times they just call. Flop #1 Qxx, Flop #2, 9xx. Flop 1 is a little scary, because QQ is in the range. Flop#2 does not bother me at all. Both cases, all the money goes in on the flop. Both cases I am against KK and way ahead. Case #1, a turned K. Case #2 a rivered K. OMG, why do the poker Gods hate me.

Lets just take a quick look at the odds here. KK has 2 outs. 2/45 + 2/44 = about a 9% shot or about 11 for 1. I hit an A about 4.5% of the time the K hits and still win so the odds are slightly worse than that. What are the odds that this happens back to back? 121-1. What are the odds that I win both? That happens 82% of the time. So I win both 82% of the time, we split 17% of the time, and I lose both less than 1% of the time. Damn, am I unlucky at 1/2 nl. I am supposed to win one of them back at least, what a JOKE. I'll tell you one thing, my pocket Kings never beats pocket Aces. Never, never, never.

Anyway, I did not tilt, and continued on at 1/2. Normally, I would have been away from 1/2 for a week or two after a beating like that, but I am not going to give up that easy. I managed to recoup 1/2 of my losses, and then ran top 2-pair against a flopped straight. Managed not to rack out there, but I was back to down $240. I think I am dealing with it better now-a-days. I went on a mini slump for a couple of days last week at .50/1, but I laughed it off, blogged about how funny it was, and was back to my winning ways by the third day. Someday things will turn around for me at 1/2. I hope it is soon. Poker Gods, throw me a bone please.


At 3:12 PM, Blogger smokkee said...

you just took some bad beats. you, me, no one is going to fold KK in those situations. they just got lucky. it's not the level, it's the game. just stick with it and don't play scared money. you'll go broke for sure.


Post a Comment

<< Home