AA and 44-66 Expectation Value Graphs
I have refined a bit the Expectation Value graph and have ended up with what is below.
Below is the chart for 44-66 the semi-dangerous low to middle pair. Again this is for 1/2 NL Holdem at Full Tilt. In this case 180 hands are shown.
For the small to middle pairs a full 66% of the time I am dealt them I will lose 0-5% of my stack. This is me limping in with them, and getting either bet off preflop or missing the set. About 4% of the time I will call a raise preflop, miss, and lose 5-10% of my stack. 15% of the time I will win 0-5% of my stack. This probably includes some late position plays where I am not limping or limp/calling the hand preflop. Outside of that I will win a bunch of decent sized pots, and not really lose too many big pots. Overall I will increase my stack size by 1.1% or $2.20 on average each time I am dealt 44-66.
Where am I going with all this? Its going to be a different way of looking at MTT results. If you take a chart like above and rotate it 90 degrees it becomes an operator on your chip stack. I want to build a few more of these charts before I get there, but you can take whatever your MTT chip stack is and then take the expectation value chart for the hand that you are dealt and line up the 0% mark on the Expectation Value axis with your stack size. Then rather than just give you the +7.5% in EV for AA you would get some result between +100 and -100% of your stack based on the likelihood of each occurrence. You can then simply map out your MTT chip stack size based on the hands you are dealt. This all sounds a bit crazy, but I think this is actually a very solid model of how MTTs work. The key is that each player has their own EV curves for each hand they are dealt in an MTT. They are also free to manipulate how they play certain hands to influence the EV curves as necessary. When you get into push or fold mode late in an MTT the curve for 44-66 will look a bunch different, but that is how you may want it to look late. Ultimately, I think this will show why we are more of a slave to the cards in an MTT than many would want to admit. Sure we can play each hand slightly better then the next guy, but is that enough to overcome the threat of elimination on any hand in an MTT significantly?
Labels: Expectation Value Curves