What's the nutz? Sometimes it's a matter of perception
This will be my first in a series of HHHRs or Hoy Hot Hand Redux(es). Since I don't play that much it is better to just analyze the play of others as if I was an expert on MTTs. Below is the hand from yesterday's MATH that hoy ranted about, and smokkee posted about as well. It is a semi interesting hand from the angle that I will slice it, but there was really no donk play post flop by anyone. Hoys HHs are usually an equal mix of hoy is right the guy was a donk, hoy is wrong and he is the donk and the other guy played it right, or no donks to be found at all.
Full Tilt Poker Game #2227199071:Mondays at the Hoy (16395575), Table 1
- 60/120 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:16:37 ET - 2007/04/16
Seat 1: Unimpressed (9,483)
Seat 2: hoyazo (4,250)
Seat 3: BuddyDank (8,265)
Seat 4: SirFWALGMan (5,335)
Seat 6: summer_babe (3,897)
Seat 7: smokkee (3,640)
Seat 8: sellthekids (6,680)
Seat 9: bayne_s (3,000)
SirFWALGMan posts the small blind of 60
summer_babe posts the big blind of 120
The button is in seat #3
smokkee [Ad Jd] calls 120
Old Smokkee raises here, new smokkee limps. He has learned a lot.
bayne_s [AsKs] calls 120
A call here means at least 4 way action on the flop, prolly more. A raise here is +EV as look at the position it puts people like smokkee in, and you are narrowing down the field to 2-3 which is right for AKs. If you hit the flop big, you will extract more since it was raised preflop and the pot is bigger. You are also setting up a c-bet if you miss completely that will be a semi-bluff to some extent as you will have some nice overs. The call here in this situation with AKs is pretty donk IMO.
hoyazo [ThTd] calls 120
I really don't like this call at all, Hoy. I can see you just play the TT for a set, but it seems like the best move is to raise and take it down or at least set up a c-bet against one of the two of the EP limpers. You are looking at a 5-way flop at least, so you can only play TT for set value this way. I think the limp is +EV so I think Bayne_s play (-EV) was slightly worse.
SirFWALGMan calls 60
5-way flop as could have been expected by any and all in the hand.
*** FLOP *** [Ts Ah Ac]
Now for the angle. Smokkee has what is to him the 5th nutz. He is beat by AK, AQ, AT and TT. He can reasonable assume that no one has AK, AQ, or TT as nobody raised preflop, and by the line-up at the table, I would imagine a lot of pots were getting raised with much less than that. AT is really the scare hand here for everyone. In a 5-way limped pot, AT is a very possible hand. You could argue for a bet here as the board could get scary with another face card ruining future action. I don't think it is donk though to go for the slowplay here, with the intention of getting it in later.
bayne_s bets 600
Bayne is holding the third nutz. He can assume that TT is not out there, but once again AT is a legit worry. He must assume he is ahead and takes the lets start building a pot line which is great IMO.
hoyazo calls 600
Hoyazo is holding the third nutz. He is beat by AA, and AT. Holding TT gives Hoy the advantage of knowing that the AT is actually pretty unlikely as there is only one more T in the deck. AA is reasonable for an UTG limp from smokkee, or a super sneaky UTG+1 limp from Bayne_s after an UTG limp. Like the others Hoy needs to assume he is good and look to get his money in here. The others just need to worry about more paint showing up and their hand getting caught up with. Hoy also has this worry here a bit. If the pot gets huge he is surely up against an Ace. So he is behind AA, AT, and will also be behind a kicker or the board pairing or another ace falling, which is more likely than a gutshot paint hitting.
smokkee calls 600
*** TURN *** [Ts Ah Ac] [*Jc*]
bayne_s bets 2,280, and is all in
Needs to push and pray here, but should reasonable still think he is ahead
hoyazo calls 2,280
smokkee raises to 2,920, and is all in
hoyazo calls 640
All manditory moves at this point
smokkee shows [Ad Jd]
bayne_s shows [As Ks]
hoyazo shows [Th Td]
*** RIVER *** [Ts Ah Ac Jc] [Qd]
smokkee shows a full house, Aces full of Jacks
hoyazo shows a full house, Tens full of Aces
bayne_s shows a straight, Ace
smokkee wins the side pot (1,280) with a full house, Aces full of Jacks
smokkee wins the main pot (9,240) with a full house, Aces full of Jacks
So hoy had the best hand preflop and on the flop. A hand that was third nutz on the flop. He would need to dodge 6 outs on the turn and 9 outs on the river. The turn would be his downfall.
Smokkee had the worst hand preflop, and the worst hand on the flop, but to him it was the 5th nutz with just really AT to worry about much. So every indication he was ahead. He would turn the 1st nutz and triple through.
Bayne_s had the second best hand preflop, but it was statistically the favorite 5-way pot. He flops the third nutz, and plays it strong. He has no huge reason (much less than smokkee) to think he is behind. The turn is a scare card, so he pushes which is right for an MTT. He rivers the straight for the third best hand. I don't see how he does not get stacked here. He may have been able to get rid of smokkee through a raise followed by a hoy reraise preflop, but he does not lose hoy. Once you flop AAx with AK I think you are pot committed in a tourney.
Interesting hand if you look at it from what nutz people thought they had, what likelyhood it was not high enough nutz, and how exposed their nutz were to future higher nutz or thier own nutz being downgraded. Bayne_s third nutz is way behind Hoy's third nutz on the flop. Smokkee goes from fifth nutz to 1st nutz in one card. kinda sick, huh.