Tuesday, October 05, 2010

Top of the Food Chain Part Duece

Last Football Season, I started dabbling in Weekly Fantasy Football at a competitor’s site. The site put all entries into a hat and then auto-matched the entries. I figured that if I could hold my own against the best, I could “Stuff the Ballot Box” with my entries and get all of the match-ups available on the site. I started out completely crushing the site, but got discouraged several weeks later and stopped playing. There were a couple of key things that I did not like. First, most of my match-ups were against the better players, and not so many against the bad players limiting the chances of long-term profits. There were other’s taking my same approach, and only one player can be at the top of the food chain. Second, the way they calculate player cap values is defective, and leads good players to nearly identical teams under their pretty loose cap. I realized that my leagues were being decided mostly by how the kicker did (big variance), and not by my solid selections at the other positions.

As my Multi-sport Daily Fantasy Sport Challenge with Buffalo66 moves on to fantasy football, I figured I would give it another go this year. If I am going to put several hours building a team to compete with Buffalo’s, I might as well leverage that into some profits in other fantasy football leagues. The player cap values are just as defective as they always were, but I found a new and very lucrative angle for this year. The site has evolved a bit from the pure throw your entry into a hat model, but the organization of the site is confusing, and many people do not understand the changes. Most people take the old, easy option of throwing multiple entries into the hat for the site to find the match-ups on Sunday. However, now you can now look inside the hat and hand pick out your match-ups. They also give you detailed information on the player’s winnings with a single click. So rather than throw my entries into the hat, I simply choose my matches among beginner players only. With a small amount of work on Saturday and Sunday morning, I picked the hat clean of all beginner entries, and had my way with them. I ended up going 29-1 in Heads-up matches at the standard structure. My one loss (of course) was to Buffalo66 who seems to know how to do just enough to beat me every week. I also entered two “expert” leagues and lost them both. I don’t really like the expert leagues anyway, as they force you to choose overvalued players to get under the cap, which is sub-optimal. So if you only count my structure of choice and eliminate my nemesis, I was 29-0 against the beginners on the site. I absolutely crushed them to with a 134 score, and only a couple of them breaking 100. It was not even close, though I have to admit I had a pretty good team last week. I had my entire bankroll at work, and I plan on doing it again this week. As long as I am matched against beginners only, I should be able to win even if I have an off week. The other great thing about taking all of the beginner matches, is that it leaves only tough matches for everyone else, making it difficult for the regulars to profit after the rake. Frustrated users, should start looking for better alternatives like www.fantasysportslive.com, where it is much easier to profit from your Fantasy Sports knowledge.

Labels: , ,

3 Comments:

At 9:21 PM, Blogger Buffalo66 said...

Basically, you are saying that you're a bum hunter.

Nothing wrong with game selection, but you're implying that it's impossible for experienced players to turn a profit against each other. Rubbish.

I pretty much take on anyone, provided I can spread my action out equally amongst my opponents.

And I still turn a profit.

 
At 8:45 AM, Blogger Ryan said...

Try out Draftstreet.com if you're looking for some legitimate pricing for players.

 
At 10:05 PM, Blogger Blinders said...

Buffalo66,

Bum hunter? Not really. I have always used table selection at poker and for fantasy this is no different. Sure you can go toe to toe with the big boys, but there is currently much easier money to be made. Like it or not, Table selection is part of the skill in fantasy sports.

 

Post a Comment

<< Home