Sticking With The Aints
I don't believe this year is as strong of a pick as last year, but I am still loving the Saints in the Superbowl tomorrow. You can grab them at +6 at Bodog which seems like a no brainer based on the following.
Both teams were 13-0 before mailing it in a bit at the end. Slight edge to Indy for winning one more meaningless game than the Saints.
Strength of Schedule
Both teams had somewhat easy schedules and faced three playoff teams in the regular season. No edge here.
Results against like opponents.
The Saints actually have a huge lead here with better results pretty much across the board against like opponents. Indy lost to Bills and the Jets while the Saints crushed them both. Indy edged out Miami and New England, while the Saints beat them both by large margins. Both teams crushed Arizona (Saints did it in the playoffs). The only edge here you can find for Indy is that the crushed the hapless Rams, while the Saints edged them on the road by just 5 points. Huge edge here for the Saints.
Team Offensive Statistics
Again the Saints hold a pretty big edge here if you look at the numbers. The Saints put up 6 more points per game than Indy, and win their games by 4 more points on average than Indianapolis. They bring a much more balanced attack with 50 more yards per game rushing than Indy while just being 10 yards per game short in passing. Huge edge here for the Saints.
Team Defense Statistics
Indy gives up 2 less points per game and brings a slightly better passing defense to the table. They are also slightly better on turnovers. Slight edge here for Indy.
Indy seems pretty banged up compared the the Saints. Freeney and Powers, two defensive starters, are questionable. Wayne and Addai are probable with shoulder and knee injuries. Other than Meachem and Moore with slight ankle injuries the Saints look pretty healthy even after a tough Minnesota game.
I see no reason why Indy should be favored in the Superbowl. One extra win at the end of the regular season does not overcome the fact that the Saints are better on paper, and did much better against like opponents. You could even make the case that the Saints should be favored in this one. Take the points or bet the money line with the Saints and earns some tomorrow.