Thursday, October 23, 2008

Exploiting NFL Halftime Bets

Not much brewing lately over here in Blinders gambooling land. I have been leaving tons of money on the table by not playing the beginner S&Gs on Bodog every night. When I have played them my bankroll just goes up, up, up. When the Bodonkey starts up again you know I will be three tabeling those nights for sure. I did get my withdrawal check from Bodog after about a month of waiting. I have also been betting about 1/3 of my Bodog roll each weekend on NFL games. I have booked winning but not spectacular weekends every week so far this season (did not start betting until week 3). My Bodog roll is now in safe 4 figure territory. Part of my success is due to the NFL halftime betting lines, and I wanted to share my thoughts on them.

Halftime betting lines allow you to bet the second half of a football game against a point spread that was generated at the half. They are probably the best value there is in football betting. It is one thing to try and handicap a game that has not been played yet, and quite another to handicap the second half after watching the first. When you watch the first half of a game there is just so much more information to use when placing your bet. Halftime bets can be used as a hedge against a poor looking full game bet, as a way of winning even more when your full game bet looks good, and a way of getting action on a game that you had no idea on what side to bet before the game. I use them for all three purposes.

There are a couple of things to know about the lines that they put up at halftime. The most important, is they tend to put them near where the full game line was when possible. If the game is tracking anywhere near to the full game spread, the halftime line will probably be set to land near the full game spread. For example if the favorite was -7 for the game and leads by 4 at halftime, they will likely be 3 point favorites in the halftime spread. Even if the game is tied at halftime in the above example, the line will end up getting set somewhere near the favorite -7 points. I am not exactly sure why they do this, but it will allow you to hedge a bad bet with little risk more often than not. In the example where the 7 point favorite is tied at halftime. If you no longer like the favorite to cover the 7 points based on what you watched in the first half, you may be able to get the dog +7 in the second half, effectively canceling out your bet.

Another angle that you can use is piling on to a winning bet. Lets say you bet the favorite to cover a 7 point spread and they lead by 17 at halftime. Since they like to set the line somewhere near the original line, they will probably make the halftime bet a pick rather than make the favorite have to cover even more than 17 points overall. If you are watching a blowout in the making, they are giving you great value at a pick for a team that is crushing its opponent.

The last way that I exploit halftime bets is when I did not even take a side in the game, but I watched the first half, and certain key things happened. Lets say it is just one of those games where the better team just can't do anything right in the first half. They are marching up and down the field, but are turning the ball over in the red zone. Or there defense is solid, but they gave up a return TD on offense. You basically look at the halftime score, and call BS. The score does not really reflect what you just watched. When the line goes up sometimes you will see great value in a team that was struggling or had crazy things happen in the first half, but is good enough to overcome in the second half. When I see a crazy first half, I am always trying to anticipate where they will put the halftime line, and how it can be exploited.

If you guys are not loading up on Football bets this weekend there is always Fantasy Sports Live. Parlay the performance of real life athletes into cold hard cash everyday at FSL. See you in the blogger battle this weekend.



At 1:50 PM, Blogger Unknown said...

Great post. I really love halftime betting. I can see the struggles with them, but I enjoy the sport of it all.

At 11:23 AM, Blogger Brett Rodgers said...

Really good post. I really like it and learned a lot about halftime lines and halftime betting. I have tried it a few times and I think that its way fun.


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