Nine Eight Sooted
I thought I would continue with my theme this week, and discuss a questionable fold in a live MTT with a sooted connector. This hand is from the same OCPT tournament as the AKs hand, but was during level 4 (5/10 Blinds) when rebuys were still available. This was after my mini-run, and I had just north of T600 in front (T300 to start), when I picked up 9d8d in the BB. There were a bunch of limpers, and I checked behind for a 5-way flop.
So I flop top 2-pair with a runner-runner flush possible as well. That is a highly coordinated flop though, so I need to be careful here. The SB opens for T25. I figured I had him for sure, so I popped it up to T100 to chase the probable draws away. Behind me there is a call, a push for about T800, a call for T550, and a fold from the SB who had opened. Holy Fawk! Again I am in the tank. It would be pretty sick to fold top 2-pair on the flop, but this is some pretty crazy action and this was a 5-way limped pot, so any holdings are possible. The shove for T800, and the call for T550 were from players that I respected. I was not concerned by the T100 caller. Had I been at or near my starting stack, I insta-push here, but since I had doubled up already, I needed to consider protecting my stack for later in the tournament. My thought was that there was a huge chance that I was already beat. JT, or 56 was probably out there. A set was possible. Even if somehow I was still ahead here, I had to be up against some fat flush and straight draws. Throw in some A9 and K9 type hands, and just about any cards that come on the turn/river will beat me. If I am already beat, I will need to hit a four outer for the boat. There is also a decent chance that one of my 9s is already gone (in one of the four other hands) leaving me three or less outs. I agonized and agonized about this. This is a rebuy so you pretty much can’t fold top two on the flop, right? I am getting some pretty sick pot odds here as well, though not enough if I am already behind.
So was it a good decision???
The results were pretty interesting, but they should not matter right? The important result I guess is what everyone else had. If I was right about being behind it was a great fold, even if I would have caught a boat. If I was wrong and was actually ahead of all 4 of them it was a bad fold even if they hit a draw? I will call this a bad fold for now.
The T100 guy called as well leaving three hands still active and all-in. Initial pusher had As4s for the nut flush draw. Initial caller of the push had QTo. Guy who called T100 and then both pushes had Js6s. So I was up against two flush draws, a double gutter, and an outside straight draw, but was somehow ahead of three others who pushed the flop.
Turn – Blank
River – Jd
QTo wins massive pot with a straight. I would have been nearly stacked. I was wrong about being behind, but right about facing a ton of fat draws. I was priced in for a call based on their actual holdings, but would have lost my double stack in the process. So was it a good fold?