Friday, February 01, 2008

Super Bowl Pick

I love to bet on the Superbowl, but who does not. Some years it’s tough to pick a side, and I wager a bit less and focus more on the prop bets. Some years I am feeling good about a side, and throw substantial funds its way. Just north of age 21, I won $1,700 on the superbowl during a trip to Vegas (specifically to bet on it). I have won north of $1k a couple other times as well. I have never really lost a bunch due to my complex hedging strategies on any Superbowl. Normally, I love a Superbowl that has the best NFL defense as there is almost always a ton of value there. No such luck this time. The other key thing about the Superbowl, like I said for college bowl games, is that there will be no let downs. You can expect both teams to be rested and ready, and to give 100% effort. The better team will likely win, and normally does in the Superbowl.

I am feeling pretty good about a side this year. I am loving the Patriots to cover. I already booked significant action at NE -11 on Bodog. I will be loading up more over the weekend. There are a bunch of reasons that I am sure the Pats will cover. I will list a few of them below.

1) The Patriots have the better coach.
I doubt there is any argument here. More importantly, the Pats just played the Giants in the last game of the season. The Giants gave them everything that they had. They revealed their hand so to speak. Belicheck can and will exploit this information in the Superbowl. NE also cheats, so they probably have a good read on the signal calling and other items as a result of this recent game.

2) The Patriots have the better Q.B.
No argument here either I am sure. Brady is simply the man. Who else would you want as your Superbowl QB? Manning’s little brother is not even on the Radar here. Great QBs do great things in the Superbowl, and in general the lesser names struggle (though there are notable exceptions).

3) The Patriots have the better receivers
Plax is coming back around, but Moss broke a ton of records this year, and Welker is a high volume target. The rest of the WRs are solid for NE. After Plax you got Ike, and then not much with the Giants.

4) NE has the better defense
We may get some arguments here. The Giants defense has been playing well. However, NE defense is statistically better, and they played a tougher schedule as well. NE does have an edge on Defense.

5) Best Team Ever vs. 5th Seed in the worst conference does not bode well for the underdog.
The 2007 Patriots may be the best team ever. The 2007 Giants are not even close in all-time rankings. They would not even be mentioned. The Giants are a huge dog here with little chance to get the win.

6) The point spread is more than fair.
-11 to -12 is more than fair for the NE side. This is a pretty low number IMO. It has been driven low by NE's inability to cover in its last five games, as well as the Giants ability to pull off a few upsets in the playoffs. The Giants have not faced a team like NE yet, and NE has had to play a bunch of cold weather games lately against better teams than the Giants. NE is a team built for warm weather, and I see them as having a home field disadvantage in the playoffs. The Superbowl will be a warm weather high scoring game. NE will once again run the score up.

7) Moss is going to blow up in the Superbowl
This is old hat for most of NE players. This is all new for Moss. He has been quiet for a couple straight games, but has never stayed quiet for very long all season. He can and will be HUGE in the superbowl, and has a decent shot at MVP.



At 11:12 AM, Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

Well said and I agree with every point you make. I am most partial to your Point #5 -- people like to put so much on how closely the two teams played a few weeks ago. But in reality, this is the single greatest, cheatiest football team of all time, playing against a team that is undoubtedly not even in the top 5 in the NFL this season, and probably not in the top 250 NFL teams of all time. I can't help but think this is just an absolutely massive mismatch, masquerading as a potentially close game. No way I pick anyone but the Cheatriots plus the points here.

At 1:21 PM, Blogger RaisingCayne said...

No arguments here. I expect the Pats to dominate, and cover easily. (But am too big of a broke pansy to put more than the $20 I got riding on it!)

I'm not even looking forward to viewing, expecting such a one-sided affair.

At 3:11 AM, Blogger $mokkee said...

if it's too good to be true, then it must be.

gg Patsies!


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