Hoy Hot Hand Redux #2 - Post Flop Actions

I am going to start the post flop analysis from "little dicks" perspective. There were a bunch of comments on how he may have misplayed this hand. I think that we can put that idea to rest if you view the hand purely from his perspective. First off, he raised $360 preflop which was smooth called by Hoy. The $360 amount is very important here. What he has done with that raise amount is take away the set mining "rule of 10" from Hoy. Hoy would need to call $360, but can't possibly make more the 3k on the hand. He is getting 8.3 for 1 implied odds which are not nearly enough to set mine with. Because of this, little dick can eliminate all small to medium pairs from Hoy's range. If Hoy calls that raise with a small to medium pair, little dick can go to the felt post flop every time he hits and it is a +EV move. Little dick can also eliminate AA and KK from Hoy's range, as you would expect a re-re-raise with AA or KK. So when little dick makes this raise amount preflop and Hoy just calls, he is very safe going to the felt post flop if he hits an Ace or King on the flop.

Flop drops AT4, and little dick knows he is good here based on Hoy's range. So what hands makes sense for Hoy to raise 3x from the cutoff, and just call the re-raise. AK, AQ, AJs, KQs, JJ and TT come to mind. From that range, he only needs to worry about the very specific TT hand. In Super System, Doyle says that he prefers AK to AA as a starting hand in holdem. The idea is that AK needs to hit something on the flop, and when it does there is only two cards left that could have made a set. AK is a safer hand when it makes TPTK then AA when it is an overpair in Doyle's opinion. In this case only TT and 44 could make a set, and 44 is eliminated from Hoy's range. Now when little dick decided to put over 1/6th of his stack in preflop, he is not thinking about releasing the hand when an A or K flops. If he wants a chance to release his hand post flop, he needs to only call Hoy's raise. When he reraises AK, he is committed to going to war post flop if he hits.

Hoy checks to little dick. He absolutely must c-bet this. He could overbet push to kill a normal draw, but he is heads-up and with Hoy's range he knows that he is ahead here. Also, most of the hands in Hoy's range would not lead to a draw. So he makes a value c-bet hoping Hoy has a hand like AQ, AJ and will call. Hoy instead pushes all-in. At this point little dick already has close to 1/2 of his stack in the pot. He insta-called, but if you think about Hoy's range now you can limit it to AK, AQ, AJ, TT, or a draw. AK or TT are pretty longshot hands. He knows he is either dominating Hoy, or Hoy is on a draw at this point, and it is a very easy call. Little dick is getting 4 for 1 on the call so any and all draws that Hoy may have are not good enough to get him to fold. Easy call here IMO. The fact that Hoy hit is draw is completely irrelevant to this analysis.

Now from Hoys perspective. He smooth calls preflop. He flops a monster draw. It looks to be a coinflip at this point as a straight or flush should be good. Since little dick reraised and Hoy only called, he can expect a c-bet from little dick if he checks. If he does not get the expected c-bet, Hoy gets a free card towards his draw, and can reevaluate on the turn. Checking to the preflop re-raiser in this situation is how Hoy will gain the most value here. So he makes the right move, little dick c-bets as expected, Hoy jams as planned, and little dick insta-calls. Both were easily priced in here to make these moves. Both played the hand as well as possible post flop.

In MTTs you must push any edge you find. The blinds are increasing, and you will only find so many profitable situations. I love this play (jamming a draw) early in an MTT as well. You will either get yourself eliminated, or get a nice stack to go deep with. Getting eliminated early helps your hourly win rate, and if you read this blog you know that to me that is the most important measure. Floating along with a below par stack for a few hours, and then getting eliminated semi-deep and out of the money is a disaster to your hourly win rate. You absolutely must make a move like this when you find a very +EV situation post flop, like both players found on this hand.

Now Hoy thought there was a decent chance that he gets TPTK to fold to the jam. I don't really get that. If little dick was c-betting with air he can fold, but there is no way he folds TPTK in this situation. As I said above, he already has close to 1/2 his stack in the pot, and has a great read on Hoy's range. He is dead to TT but that's about it. He's not folding there, I am not folding there, and I am sorry, but Hoy does not fold there either if he is in little dicks shoes. It's a 100% call situation period.

In conclusion, the only mistake I see for the entire hand is Hoy calling the preflop re-raise. Other than that Hoy played it right, and little dick did as well. If I was little dick, I guess I am a little upset with the preflop call, but it basically gave little dick a huge +EV situation post flop. No reason to rail the guy who hit his draw for four hours, but some people just don't get it. If I was him, I look back at the hand and know that I played it correctly. That is all that matters here. Decisions matter, and results don't matter in poker. More people need to understand this, but emotions always get in the way.

Edit:

I went back and ran the post flop numbers, and I have to admit I made a couple of mistakes. First off, I had the stack sizes off. Hoy had $4,310 and not the $3,000 that I had assumed. Secondly, it is not really close to a coin-flip. The problem with just counting your outs, is that you are not considering the other guys redraws to beat you when you hit, or the parts of his range that are stealing your outs. Both of these factors make the check/fold post flop line for Hoy more favorable. Not quite all the way to make it the best play, but much more of a borderline decision. You can't really put the guy on exactly AdKh, but that is pretty much worst case where you lose two of your outs, and he also gets a redraw to a higher flush. For that exact hand, check/fold is the best post flop line. Below is a chart that shows the EV of the check/jam line Hoy used for my $3000 starting stack assumption, as well as the $4310 actual starting stacks. It also looks at the situation against the exact hand Hoy was against, AQs, the range I suggested for "ol little dick", and a worst case AA. If you assume no folding equity for the jam at all, at the actual stack sizes, the check/fold line is correct. If you go to $3000 starting stacks, you can still check/jam with positive expectation even if you get no folding equity. Most important, I think is to look at the AK or big pair range that I suggested. JJ-KK will most likely c-bet that flop after Hoy checks, and Hoy does get some folding equity on those hands with the Ace on the board. I would say he has at least 30% folding equity for 3k stacks, and at least 50% folding equity for the substantially deeper $4,310 stacks against JJ-KK. When you factor this in, the check/jam line is clearly best even for the deeper stacks. But, like I said at the top of the edit, it has been pushed towards a much more borderline decision than my original post would have lead you to believe. My bad Hoy.