Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Priced In For A Hoy Rant

I did not comment about riverchasers a few weeks back. I had a few huge suckouts, and amassed a monster stack through some redonkulous play. Rather than do my typical coast in to heads-up mode when I have a huge stack in an MTT, I thought it would be great fun to continue to play the opposite of how I claim to play. So I was pressuring the table with my stack, and calling down with some craptastic hands like KJo and A6o when a shorty dare push back. This was just plain working for me, so I had to continue, but I was "priced in" most of the time. Sometimes Hoy will get called down with some kind of crap, and if the crap wins you get a rant. A lot of the time, the crappy hand was making the correct call. It is all a matter of the range you put the guy on, and if you are priced in to that range or not. Below is a typical big stack preflop raise, that is priced in to any push by a shorty. Why not bet more than? Because you want to raise the same amount preflop to disguise your hand.

FullTiltPoker Game #3206450743: Riverchasers Online Poker Tour (24300118)
Table 3 - 500/1000 Ante 125 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:49:17 ET - 2007/08/09
Seat 1: hoyazo (9,778)
Seat 3: stl_phily (29,045)
Seat 4: jeciimd (7,795)
Seat 6: AlCantHang (16,379)
Seat 8: crazdgamer (12,875)
Seat 9: Blinders (38,128)
hoyazo posts the small blind of 500
stl_phily posts the big blind of 1,000
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to Blinders [6h Ad]
jeciimd folds
AlCantHang folds
sircrazdgamer folds
Blinders raises to 3,000
hoyazo raises to 9,653, and is all in
stl_phily folds
Blinders calls 6,653
hoyazo shows [8d 8s]
Blinders shows [6h Ad]
*** FLOP *** [5c 9c 7c]
*** TURN *** [5c 9c 7c] [6c]
*** RIVER *** [5c 9c 7c 6c] [4c]
hoyazo shows a flush, Nine high
Blinders shows a flush, Nine high
hoyazo ties for the pot (10,528) with a flush, Nine high
Blinders ties for the pot (10,528) with a flush, Nine high

So I am calling 6653 to win 21056.
about 3.2 to 1

Poker Calculator
70.5 hoy/29.5 me

These would be the approximate odds for the KK-77 range. (7 hands)

For the 22-55 range (5 hands)

For the AK-A7 Range (7 hands)
66.5/23.5/10 tie

For the A5-A2 Range (5 hands)
24/40/36 tie

For the KQ, KJs, QJ, JTs Range
43/57 (Many hands)

AA and 66 would be pretty rare

Hoy's M for the hand is 4.3 and he is already in for 625, and only needs to deal with me and the BB. He has been pushing quite a bit preflop, and to me his range is easily any pair, any Ace, and a decent handful of middling hands like KQ, KJs, JTs, 98s... This could also be a pure resteal with ATC as this is Hoy right. And he knows how tight I am. I have not been playing that way to this point though. So for the exact match up of 88 vs A6, I laid 31.5% on a 29.5% chance. This by itself it bad, but just barely. If you sum in all of Hoy's range and the odds of him having each hand in his range (remember I have an Ace so his Ax chances are lower) I am getting a great price here at 3.2 to 1. I am not going to do the math, but I think there are some tools out there that could (drop the result in the comments if you want). So I made a great call because I was priced in, and if I eliminate Hoy, I get a rant as a bonus. Hoy in this case is also priced in for a push, so nothing wrong with his move. The dead money, prices us both in and makes both moves correct.

Even if I knew that Hoy had exactly 88 (or even QQ), I still make the call even though it is slightly -EV long term. I do it because of what it does for my image as the chip leader. I am raising it up a bunch preflop, and I don't want people like Hoy thinking they can resteal in position on me. Because of this and other calls I made in the same type of situations, the shorties are going to realize that I can and will call their push after I raise preflop, so they better have a lot more than ATC. This will buy me tons of blinds going forward, so who really cares about the actual hand being ever so slightly -EV. The range is very +EV, and the image points are also hugely +EV.

The only real negative was that I did not suck out and get a Hoy rant. I have never gotten one before, but I never suckout as I always have the Nutz.

In closing below is another typical hand where the call of the shorties push is pretty easy because you are "priced in".

FullTiltPoker Game #3206306407: Riverchasers Online Poker Tour (24300118),
Table 3 - 400/800 Ante 100 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:35:42 ET - 2007/08/09
Seat 1: hoyazo (19,963)
Seat 2: PokerKID8umup (5,132)
Seat 3: stl_phily (10,285)
Seat 4: jeciimd (10,870)
Seat 5: PouringReign (9,288)
Seat 6: AlCantHang (10,650)
Seat 7: wwonka69 (10,072)
Seat 8: crazdgamer (10,300)
Seat 9: Blinders (27,440)
jeciimd posts the small blind of 400
PouringReign posts the big blind of 800
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to Blinders [Kd Js]
AlCantHang folds
wwonka69 folds
crazdgamer folds
Blinders raises to 2,400
hoyazo folds
PokerKID8umup folds
stl_phily foldsjeciimd folds
PouringReign raises to 9,188, and is all in
Blinders calls 6,788
PouringReign shows [6s 6d]
Blinders shows [Kd Js]
*** FLOP *** [Qh Kc Jd]
*** TURN *** [Qh Kc Jd] [8s]
*** RIVER *** [Qh Kc Jd 8s] [7c]
PouringReign shows a pair of Sixes
Blinders shows two pair, Kings and Jacks
Blinders wins the pot (19,676) with two pair, Kings and Jacks
PouringReign stands up

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At 6:08 PM, Blogger jobo said...

Hmm, in my understanding of pot odds, you don't count money that you have to put in to call as "money in the pot".

So, you're only getting the 1500 in blinds, your 3000, and Hoy's 9653 for your call of 6653, leaving you with actual odds of 2.1 to 1.

At 8:37 AM, Blogger Blinders said...

Its all maped out in percentages in the post. I should have said 3.2 "for" 1. I am laying 31.5% of the pot for 29.5% equity in the exact hand match-up. Add in the balance of hoy's range and I am getting better than 31.5% equity over all.

At 10:42 AM, Blogger NewinNov said...

I totally agree with your analysis for the most part and when you have the chips to gamble and are "priced in" take on the short stacks. The advertising benefit is also something that is generally overlooked and gets you more respect and therefore more free blinds.

At 12:08 PM, Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

Nice post as usual, Blinders. However, your call of the reraise with A6o is a -EV move, your math proved it yourself, and I am unpersuaded that the "advertising" value you get here makes up for your poor pot odds on the call (please don't really act like any "advertising" in a blonkeyfest like Riverchasers will even be noticed let alone respected and reacted to by the other blonkeys). That right there is a bad call. If you had AQ or AJ there then you can easily think you are a 50-50 shot anyways so maybe the call becomes a little better, but with an Ace and a lowly 6, that is not a place where people should be calling in most cases, and I do not agree that you were "priced in". I would describe that situation as "priced out", as you did not have the required odds and I think you significantly underestimate the odds of you being dominated by a higher Ace or a pocket pair, but you went ahead and made the call anyways despite not getting the right odds. And then you got bailed out by a five-flush on the board.

Also, if you knew I had 88 or QQ there and you still call with A6, then you should be doomed to play nothing but blonkaments for a year until you learn better the basics of preflop tournament allin play. Your pot odds were 15k to 6k or 2.5 to 1, not 21k to 6k as you stated in your post. That you would call anyways in that spot is the worst part of this post and I'm just going to ignore it because I don't think you really mean what you said there. It does sound badass though. And again, I love the discussion about "advertising" in a Riverchasers tournament. You really think the 12-year-old is even paying attention to what hands you play and how you play them? Please.

On the KJ hand I think there is more merit to the "priced in" argument since again there is some chance that you are at least racing for the pot. In general KJ is not quite as strong as I like to be when I call an allin in this spot, as it is still dominated by JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AK, AQ, AJ or KQ, but that call is somewhat defensible at least. The A6 call is just po' poker IMCO (in my correct opinion).

Glad you're back from vacay man. It got boring just reading the same post day after day pining away for you to return.

At 4:16 PM, Blogger Blinders said...


Please define your push range there (M=4 and 8% of stack already committed) and we will put it into poker stove and see what comes out. Remember that I am calling based on a range of hands as I do not know your exact holding. The poker stove odds will give me better equity than the 31% that I laid.

BTW Hoy, you should really learn the math. Are you disputing that I paid 31% for equity in the entire pot or that I had 29% in equity once the hands were revealed.

At 5:01 PM, Blogger Gnome said...

I have a small quibble that you may have addressed in response to jobo when you said, "Its all maped out in percentages in the post. I should have said 3.2 'for' 1."
I don't understand what that means.
You weren't getting 3.2:1. You were getting 2.2:1.
2.2:1 = 1/3.2 = 68.5:31.5


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