Thursday, August 23, 2007

39%+

Nobody would run the numbers so here they are. If you limit Hoy's range to any pair, any ace, or KQ, I have over 39% equity in the pot. Since I paid about 31% for this equity this is a very easy call. If you factor an any chance that this is a resteal the odds get even better for me. Hmm, Hoy only writes about resteals? I think image is very important at this stage (even in Blonkaments), and this is a great image play while being +EV as well. If someone does not believe that this is not an overly fair range for Hoy, you might want to read Harrington II.

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4 Comments:

At 12:23 PM, Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

I have been away for 4 days and did not read any blogs so could not respond before now to your question in the comments from the other day.

I think however that I am comfortable with the discussion that you have posted here on this topic, so I am going to decline after all to post my hand range on the push in the hand in question. I want people to raise with any Ace-low hand and then to call my allin push because they tell themselves they are priced in, so as it is I already regret even saying what I did in your comments the other day when I argued against the correctness of such a move. Specifically, the Ace-low hand is exactly the one that I want to be calling allin against me when I reraise allin in that spot. So I will bow down to your math and your analysis here and admit defeat. You are right, it was the right call. Well played.

I am constantly amazed that people do not have a better read than they do on the cards I play and the way I play them. I especially love it when people call me down (all the fricking time) with utter crap on the assumption that I am just "restealing" or something, just because I am am active raiser and reraiser very late in mtts when the blinds and antes make it such that you have to act that way in order to play optimally. I guess that means I am doing something right, but whenever people put me on a range, they basically always far overestimate the hands I could be holding. I am without a doubt one of the tighter poker bloggers out there, and yet no one seems to realize that at all.

Nice post as usual.

 
At 8:32 AM, Blogger Blinders said...

If your range with an M of about 4 is tighter than any ace/any pair, then you are a bunch tighter than me at that point in an MTT thats for sure. I don't believe you for a second. So you let your self get blinded out over the next 25 hands waiting for something better than that? We all know thats not how you play MTTs, and you were pushing with a high frequency that would indicate a wide range in this exact MTT.

If I played more of the blogaments I would have tons of examples of you with that type of range, but I don't. I don't blame you at all for not revealing what your range is there. Also, it is heavilly dependent on the player you are against. I could see you being tighter with your resteals against me during this MTT by the way I was playing. It's nice to know that you are afraid to resteal on me.

 
At 8:46 AM, Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

I wouldn't say I'm "afraid" to resteal against you, Blinders.

I think "terrified" is more accurate.

 
At 10:06 AM, Blogger Blinders said...

lol, nice play with the 92s last night BTW.

 

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