Wednesday, May 23, 2007

My Money Is On The Babe

Now that we are a little over 1/2 way through the BBT, we can start to get a feel for who is likely to take this thing down. My money is on SummerBabe. She seems to have a great handle on how to work your way through these bloggaments and score big points. No one thought that she would make such an effort to attend these lowly MTTs. They are much below her stakes, and the poor level of play must be hard for her to adjust to. But, she is clearly making the required adjusments to be successful in these events. I will list my favorites with odds to take it down and comments.

Summer Babe: Current points leader and second in points/event. If she continues to play in most of the remaining events she is the favorite. (2-1 to win)

Bayne_S: Has played in all of the events and is a very consistant performer. Also has the ability to put a big score up. The guys above Bayne_s better watch out. (5-1 to win)

oossuuu754: Second overall, and has played in all of the events. Started off hot, and is starting to put things together again. Has a big chance if he plays them all out. (5-1 to win)

MiamiDon: Started out hot, and looked like he would just leave us in his dust. Has slowed a bit, but still sits in 4th overall. Has the ability to win these, so is always a threat to move back into the lead. (5-1 to win)

Astin: Current points/event leader and 6th overall. If Astin can find a way to play in most of the remaining events, he can make a solid run at this. (8-1 to win)

MikeMaloney: Current cash leader on the BBT, and 5th/6th in overall in rank & P/E rank respectively. I like people who have the ability to take these down because they are always a threat to jump into the lead from nowhere. Mike will need to play most of the remaining events for a good shot (8-1 to win)

RecessRampage: A solid performer (8th overall, 5th in P/E), but is not currently playing in enough events to have a great chance. If he can find a way to play most of the remaining events he has a shot (12-1 to win)

Waffles: Got off to a good start, but has cooled a bit. Plays in most events so should continue to accumulate points. He will need a couple of top 3 finishes soon to move back into contention (20-1 to win)

Longshot Pool: I would put Drizz, Mattazuma, Mookie, and myself in here. All of us are top 10 in points/event, but have only played 13/22 events so far. If all of us continue to play at this pace then the chance that one from the list wins is (20-1 to win). If someone from this group (will not be me) steps up and plays most of the remaining events that persons chance will be (10-1 to win).

BBT Points/Event Standings (11 events minimum)
BBT Cash Standings



At 12:04 PM, Blogger SirFWALGMan said...

You forgot a lot of people.. heh. At least i got mentioned.. I guess thats good..

Smokkee: 6:1 to totally weakly and meakly flame out.

JeciiMD: 15:1 to win the points, 100:1 to cash in any one of these

GCox: 100:1 to call

If I had to guess who is running best right now I would say Mahoney.
I think Summer babe is a luckbox and will flame out and fall to the back of the bus. Of course never count Waffles out.. that 20:1 slight disrespect might be all I need to motivate me to kick some ass.

At 3:13 AM, Blogger smokkee said...

you can make all the fun charts u want and twist the numbers all day.

if i can put together a coupla wins like Don did early on or finish in the top 3 a coupla times like Iggy did, im there.

i'm just hoping to stay close to the top and maybe i can catch a rush late.

in the meantime, you keep on folding to the points.

At 6:11 AM, Blogger Mike Maloney said...

I don't think my play is good enough to win, but I appreciate the nice odds. Oh, and you'll never get any action with Wawfuls at 20:1. I was thinking more like 80:1

At 10:08 AM, Blogger Alan said...

Holy crap. I'm just glad to be on the list. I really need to take down a few tourneys though...

And smokes, don't hate. :)

At 10:11 AM, Blogger Blinders said...


The odds I am putting up are my honest assessment. I don't think you really have much of a chance at this point based on what you have done so far. I will give you 25-1 right now if you are interested.
The odds are based on two criteria. How many points you have accumulated so far and how many events you have played. The people who have played most events need to be at/near the top to have a chance. People who have not played most, but have been raking in the points have a chance if they play more events. You don't fall into either catagory.

At 10:16 AM, Blogger bayne_s said...

I am beginning to see a wagering opportunity here. May have to put 5 units on Babe and 2 units each on Miami Don and oossuuu.

Just have to figure out what 1st prize in BBT is so I can properly size the units.

At 8:34 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Like Pete Rose are we allowed to bet on ourself?

Just curious because I'm taking this fucker down.

At 3:26 PM, Blogger smokkee said...

i'm more like 1000-1 as bad as i'm running. update your odds to reflect this.

At 2:02 AM, Blogger Chad Carpenter (Yahoo IM: carchd) said...

This tournament should have been kept score is cash money won, not number of events played. Last time I checked winning money was the goal of every poker player. Do NFL teams get playoff points for losing? This whole thing is a joke in my opinion :)


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