Wednesday, November 01, 2006

Peep Show Mistake?

$8 Token Race FullTilt
1200/600 blinds
7 players remain.

In the BB you pick-up 88. It folds to SB who completes. SB is chip leader and has 6200 behind. You have 3600 left after posting the BB. Shortstack at table has about 2600 left. 3600 would currently be good for 6th.

I could check, raise or push.

Any kind of raise pot commits me, so it really is check or push.

If I check, I will be in position, but against the chip leader post flop. Almost any stab at the pot post flop will pot commit me. If I check, I can be pretty sure the chip leader will fire at some point, and I will be put to the test on the bubble.

If I push, I will put the chip leader to the test. If he calls and loses, he will be the shortstack on the bubble. If he folds, he still can fold to the token. I can't imagine a lot of hands that could possibly be ahead of me that the chip leader does not raise with in this situation. So I am almost positive I am ahead, and I am pretty sure I can get him to fold his hand that is behind. If I take this down right now, I can fold to the token.

This is a token race though. You have to consider that. There is a decent chance, I can fold to the token, and a great chance I can fold to the boobie prize. There is a shorty, who has less than 2 orbits left. 1200/600 is steep, and any contested pot will have an all-in at this point. I could play it safe, but if I check/fold to post flop pressure, the shorty could fold through his blinds, and put me to the test next orbit.

I Push!

Chip Leader tanks and then calls with JTs

The result is not that important here. Did I play it right/wrong EV wise?


At 5:44 PM, Blogger Mike Maloney said...

I think pushing is the right call here. The sb was stupid to call. It's a token tourney, as you said, and he's the chip leader, so there's no pressure for him right now to play anything but premium hands, which JTs is not. You, on the other hand, are fine for now, but you're not exactly out of danger. A push here should most of the time result in a fold, and give you some padding to your chip stack. I'd make this play every day if I faced that situation. I really don't understand why the sb would call with that. Even if he put you on a steal, his hand is so mediocre that chances are he's behind with whatever you pushed with. If you got knocked out, that sucks, but you made the right play, in my opinion.

At 5:46 AM, Blogger AnguilA said...

The only question here is determining the range of hands that are going to call you, and that should be very selective since he should know that he can fold into the "money", so that would make it correct for you to go all-in in my opinion to get those well needed chips for survival.

I'm with MMaloney. I think you made the right play and he made a wrong decision calling because even in case you were bluffing he would be behind to any Q,K and A.

At 8:23 AM, Blogger smokkee said...

no brainer.

you only have 3x the BB. that sng is not gonna be over in 1 orbit most likely. blinds will hit you again in a few hands. obv poosh. BIG stack showed weakness by limping from the SB. he wants to see a flop.

At 8:26 AM, Blogger TripJax said...

I think I fold there. I have folded many premium hands based on the chipstacks of other players and how close we are to the bubble.

You can't bank on the fact that any chip leader will fold to the money because most of the people that play those things don't adjust their play to a token race style.

I fold AA in some situations in a token tourney if it makes sense. Let the shorty donk out then you are good to go. If he doesn't donk, then most likely two other players will battle and you will get your token or at least the cash.

My two cents...

At 9:12 AM, Blogger SirFWALGMan said...

I am amazed you pushed. heh. I saw an amazing display of folding in the Big Game.. the thing with tokens is 6 places pay right? It does not matter if you take first or 6th.. I think folding 88 which is at best 50/50 is a better move here..

At 10:44 AM, Blogger NewinNov said...

I agree with Smokkee, push. Limp by the SB indicates average hand, you having folding equity, if the small stack gets lucky and doubles through, you are in danger, you will also get hit with the blinds soon. I'm going for the token, not the 6th place money only.

At 10:46 AM, Blogger Blinders said...

Thanks for all the comments! I thought just about everyone would side with the push, but it was a kinda bordeline decision. For those who watched the big game, you can tell I may need a little work on my end game aggression. So for me, I have to push here, just to get in that mode. I am capible of folding AA in that situation if I am sure that I have the token, but there was enough doubt, that pushing seemed reasonable.

At 9:10 AM, Blogger Iakaris aka I.A.K. said...

Little late to this one, but I agree with smokkee, this is an autopush and retard with JTs needs to noted as not understanding a thing about token strategy. As I note, I am playing for fifth in these things, but with your stack size a push IS a play for fifth. His call is retarded.

At 1:59 PM, Blogger HighOnPoker said...

I'm going for the FOLD. Here's the thing. Even if you only have 3x the BB, you are still in 6th, so someone has even less. They are going to pretty much auto push once they are in the blinds. So, you fold here to avoid this very situation (someone calling w/ two overs) and then you hope that the shortstack loses his likely cointoss. Anyone who suggests that you push are not considering the fact that 1st-5th pay the same amount and at least 6th gets some money. You are playing for 5th, and you should be willing to get 6th, but you definitely do not want 7th, so you have to play extra tight. I only push there with TT or higher.


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