Tuesday, September 05, 2006

Mansion Bet and Hedge Placed

It was a good thing that I waited until this week to place the bet. With Big Ben out, the line moved from Pitt -4.5 to a pick over the weekend. Today I put the $1,100 on Pittsburg at Mansion (line was pick). I went to Pinnacle for the hedge based on Scurvy's advice. I really do not like Pitt to win this game, so I decided to over hedge it. This actually has quite a few advantages. I was able to get Miami +1 (-104). You really can't beat that line or price. The other thing that was cool is Pinnacle gives an instant deposit bonus, which makes hedging the bet +EV compared to just letting it roll on Pitt. I deposited 600 which with the insta bonus gave me $660. The Pinnacle betting interface is a little strange in that you put in how much you want to win, not what you want to bet. I ended up laying $655.20 to win $630, after depositing only $600. Overhedging it buys you some insurance in case Mansion decided not to refund your $1,100 if the Pitt bet loses. If you assume that Mansion will pay the Pitt bet if it wins (You have to assume this, unless they shut down the site this Friday), my results will be as follows.

Pitt Wins +$400
Miami Wins, Mansion refunds Pitt bet +$630
Miami loses by exactly 1 point +$1,000
Miami wins, and Mansion does not refund Pitt bet -$470

If you assume mansion will refund losing Pitt bets, and that the game will be close giving Pitt about a 1 in 10 shot of winning by exactly 1 point, the bets I have made have an expectation value of $563.50, which is much better then letting it ride on Pitt (EV +500).

Anyway, it should be an exciting opening night for the NFL season. I might do some live betting at WSEX to further hedge Miami, but that will be a game-time decision.


At 8:41 AM, Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

Hey Blinders, you said something a couple of posts ago that I wanted to agree with. I was just telling a guy I work with this week that I always find the online poker sites to be uberfishy on the long holiday weekends. Even when I won the 20x180 sng I played this weekend, it was on Sunday night, when everyone and their mother were online playing since they all had Monday off and could sleep in, do whatever they wanted, etc. This is probably the third or fourth major holiday weekend in the U.S. in a row where I have won a good deal of money over the weekend just by doing the things I normally do anyways in the evenings.

Hey let me ask you, do you find the quality of the competition or the way things are played to be materially different in any one site vs. any other of the sites that you play at?

Good luck with the Challenge man, you are making this look easy (which it certainly isn't). The one bad day is no biggity, even if it was your own tilt that contributed to it.

At 9:19 AM, Blogger Blinders said...


Holiday weekends are always the fishiest. Friday and Saturday night on a regular weekend would come in second. The strange thing is that during this challenge I have been running best mid-week, and not as well on the weekends. I think this is just a sample size issue though. Last weekend the play everywhere was absolutley terrible. As I said in my post, I thought a $200+ day on Monday was very possible, and was dissappointed that my own play destroyed my chances.

As for the different sites, there are differences in the style of play and the ability of the players from site to site. I have played on about 10 different sites, and have won at every site I have played on, but the win rates vary quite a bit, even though my game is pretty similar no matter where I play. For cash games I would rate PokerStars as the toughest, and PartyPoker as the easiest. I play mainly at FullTilt, and have probably won about 12k of the 20k(ish) overall online from that site. I will probably play more at Party going forward, as my win rate is higher than at Fulltilt (just got pokertracker working on Party to confirm this hunch).

I like to play for bonuses, so If I got one at FullTilt or Party working you will find me there. World Poker Exchange is rake free, and I have done well there, if you include the 100% rake back, but the play is tougher than Party or FullTilt. When I was playing there a lot, I could earn $300-400 a week in rake refund on top of any winnings.


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